Our nation is in the midst of a perfect storm, according to ETS researchers — and the forecast is grim — unless we invest in policies that will change our perilous course.

A report from ETS's Policy Information Center, America's Perfect Storm: Three Forces Changing Our Nation's Future, looks at the convergence of three powerful socioeconomic forces that are changing our nation's future.

The first force contributing to our country’s perfect storm is the wide disparity in literacy and numeracy skills among our school-age and adult populations.

The second force comprises the seismic changes in our economy that have resulted in new sources of wealth, novel patterns of international trade, and a shift in the balance between capital and labor. These changes have been driven by both technological innovation and globalization, resulting in a profound restructuring of the U.S. workplace. Indeed, the labor markets of today are markedly different from those of earlier decades.

The third force involves sweeping demographic changes. The U.S. population is projected to grow from nearly 300 million in 2005 to more than 360 million in 2030. Over this period, our population will become increasingly older and more diverse, with immigration having a significant impact on the composition of the workforce, as well as of the general population.

These three forces — substantial disparities in the distributions of skills, economic restructuring, and demographic trends — are each powerful in their own right. But as they play out together over time, the result is truly a perfect storm that, unlike the storm chronicled by Sebastian Junger2, continues to gain strength with no end in sight.

Visit America's Perfect Storm: Three Forces Changing Our Nation's Future Download Page

You can download full publication in PDF format.

This report was written by:
Irwin Kirsch, Henry Braun, and Kentaro Yamamoto of ETS, and Andrew Sum of Northeastern University.

January 2007
Policy Evaluation and Research Center, Policy Information Center
Educational Testing Service

Download America's Perfect Storm: Three Forces Changing Our Nation's Future

PDF format, 481KB, 34Pages.

Table of Contents:
Preface....................................................................................................2
Acknowledgments..................................................................................2
Executive Summary...............................................................................3
Introduction............................................................................................6
A Look Backward...................................................................................8
The Three Forces..................................................................................11
The Divergent Skill Distributions........................................................12
The Economy........................................................................................16
The Demographic Trends.....................................................................19
A Look Toward the Future...................................................................21
Implications..........................................................................................24
Appendix...............................................................................................27

About ETS:

ETS is a nonprofit institution with the mission to advance quality and equity in education by providing fair and valid assessments, research and related services for all people worldwide.

In serving individuals, educational institutions and government agencies around the world, ETS customizes solutions to meet the need for teacher professional development products and services, classroom and end-of-course assessments, and research-based teaching and learning tools. Founded in 1947, ETS today develops, administers and scores more than 30 million tests annually in more than 180 countries, at over 9,000 locations worldwide.

Additional information about the America’s Perfect Storm report is available at ets.org/stormreport.

Comments (1)

Name

Email

Comment

smaller | bigger

Add Comment