FORWARD: Asian Development Outlook 2009 (ADO 2009) is the 21st edition of the annual comprehensive economic report on the developing member economies of the Asian Development Bank.

Part 1 of ADO 2009 sets out the global economic conditions underlying the assessment of and projections for developing Asia. Part 3 of ADO 2009 evaluates the recent economic performance of 45 economies in Asia, and provides projections for major macroeconomic indicators for 2009 and 2010.

The effects of the unfolding global economic crisis looms large in the outlook for developing Asia. With limited direct exposure to the subprime assets at the heart of the global financial meltdown, it was thought that the region would be spared the worst effects—an impression that was borne out by the resilience of the region’s financial institutions. However, as the financial crisis impinges on global demand, it is clear that avoidance is not an option—crisis mitigation measures must now come to the fore.

Transmission of the crisis through trade channels began in earnest in the final quarter of 2008, slowing growth in developing Asia to 6.3%—a sharp deceleration from the record expansion of 9.5% registered in 2007.

Growth in all subregions flagged, except for the Pacific. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India both grew at a healthy pace, but at slower rates than in previous years. Expansion in the PRC was a robust 9%, while growth in India was estimated to have come in at 7.1%. Growth in most other countries slackened as well.

Inflation intensified during most of last year as global food and commodity prices rallied. Despite the rapid decline in oil prices toward the latter part of 2008, consumer price increases averaged 6.9% for the entire year.

Amid the harsh global environment, prospects for developing Asia are also deteriorating. GDP growth is projected to decline to just 3.4% in 2009. Growth in all subregions is expected to ease further, with East Asian and Southeast Asian expansions slipping by at least 3 percentage points. The newly industrialized economies of Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore; and Taipei,China, will all likely contract in 2009, on account of their heavy dependence on trade to support growth. ...

Download Asian Development Outlook 2009: Rebalancing Asia’s Growth

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CONTENTS
Part 1 Enduring the uncertain global environment 1
Anatomy of a global crisis 3
Global outlook for 2009–2010 15
Developing Asia: Outlook amid crisis 25
Developing Asia and the global crisis: Channels of contagion 28
Developing Asia’s responses to the global turmoil 45
Emerging from crisis: A need to rebalance growth 48
Part 2 Rebalancing Asia’s growth 51
A question of balance 53
Causes and consequences of global imbalances:
Developing Asia’s perspective 57
Saving, investment, and current account surplus in developing Asia 69
Rebalancing growth: The role of saving and consumption 81
Rebalancing growth: Trade 95
Policy implications: A new growth strategy for developing Asia? 110
Part 3 Economic trends and prospects in developing Asia 125
Central Asia 126
Armenia 127
Azerbaijan 131
Georgia 135
Kazakhstan 142
Kyrgyz Republic 146
Tajikistan 150
Turkmenistan 154
Uzbekistan 156
East Asia 159
People’s Republic of China 161
Hong Kong, China 167
Republic of Korea 172
Mongolia 177
Taipei,China 180
South Asia 184
Islamic Republic of Afghanistan 185
Bangladesh 188
Bhutan 194
India 197
Maldives 203
Nepal 206
Pakistan 210
Sri Lanka 217
Southeast Asia 222
Brunei Darussalam 223
Cambodia 227
Indonesia 231
Lao People’s Democratic Republic 236
Malaysia 240
Myanmar 246
Philippines 248
Singapore 253
Thailand 257
Viet Nam 262
The Pacific 268
Fiji Islands 269
Papua New Guinea 272
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste 276
Small Pacific countries 279
Statistical appendix 290
Statistical notes and tables 291

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