China’s peaceful development doctrine is a broad strategy endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), whose central goal is the transformation of China into a modern and sustainably developed country through rapid economic growth. The greatest challenge for this strategy is that Beijing must reassure regional neighbors that China’s increasing economic, military, and political power do not pose a threat.

This issue of the NBR Analysis reveals unique insights by expert scholars into how India, South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines perceive the potential risks and gains of China’s ambitious strategy.

The assessment of such perspectives provides a valuable opportunity to gauge policy implications in a wide variety of areas, including politics, security, finance, and trade. Such analysis is key both to mitigating the risks of conflict in Asia and to ensuring that China’s rapid development is indeed associated with a peaceful regional environment. The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBRNBR) solicited these papers in an effort to provide a foundation for future research on this issue and to better inform U.S. policy in the region by raising awareness of Indian, South Korean, Indonesian, Thai, and Philippine views.

Carlyle A. Thayer, professor of politics in the school of humanities and social sciences of the University of New South Wales at the Australian Defence Force Academy and distinguished visiting professor of Southeast Asian Studies at Ohio University, contends that China’s diplomatic “charm offensive” in Southeast Asia has proved quite successful in the economic, military, and cultural realms. Anxieties still linger, however, over China’s future use of its revamped military, impact on the environment, harmful trade practices, and effective socialization into the “ASEAN Way.” Thayer suggests that Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines, to varying degrees, will continue to draw China into a web of interdependence. This integration will be both bilateral and ASEAN-centered. Indonesia, Thailand, and the Philippines are also likely to hedge against a prospectively aggressive China not only by encouraging the United States to stay engaged in the region but also by prompting Japan and India to take more proactive security roles.

Jae Ho Chung, professor of international relations at Seoul National University, argues that South Korea’s view of China has generally shifted from amity to wariness. Although initially welcoming China’s potential to balance against the influence of Japan and the United States, South Korea is now concerned over the potential drawbacks of economic interdependence with its giant neighbor. Political differences have also emerged over questions of history and the goals of engagement with North Korea. These economic and security issues will continue to dictate whether South Korea is able to fulfill its goal of becoming a regional balancer.

Brahma Chellaney, professor of strategic studies at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research, asserts a skeptical view of China’s peaceful development strategy, citing outstanding disputes over territory, Chinese naval expansion in the Indian Ocean, competition over oil and water, and China’s continuing support for Pakistan. Political and security issues are especially likely to plague Sino-Indian relations, although competition in the economic realm is likely to be marginally more muted. In sum, China has yet to sell India on the idea of peaceful development.

Travis Tanner 
Director, Pyle Center for Northeast Asian Studies
The National Bureau of Asian Research

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NBR Analysis. Volume 18, Number 5, April 2008

Foreword. 3
Travis Tanner
Southeast Asian Reactions to China’s Peaceful Development Doctrine: Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. 5
Carlyle A. Thayer
South Korea’s Reactions to China’s “Peaceful Development”. 15
Jae Ho Chung
Assessing India’s Reactions to China’s Peaceful Development Doctrine. 23
Brahma Chellaney

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The NBR Analysis (ISSNISSN 1052-164X), which is published five times annually by The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBRNBR), offers timely essays on countries, events, and issues from recognized specialists. The views expressed in these essays are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of other NBRNBR research associates or institutions that support NBR.NBR.NBR.

The National Bureau of Asian Research is a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution dedicated to informing and strengthening policy in the Asia-Pacific. NBRNBR conducts advanced independent research on strategic, political, economic, globalization, health, and energy issues affecting U.S. relations with Asia. Drawing upon an extensive network of the world’s leading specialists and leveraging the latest technology, NBRNBR bridges the academic, business, and policy arenas. The institution disseminates its research through briefings, publications, conferences, Congressional testimony, and email forums, and by collaborating with leading institutions worldwide.

NBRNBR also provides exceptional internship opportunities to graduate and undergraduate students for the purpose of attracting and training the next generation of Asia specialists. NBRNBR was started in 1989 with a major grant from the Henry M. Jackson Foundation.

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