By Marcus Noland , Institute for International Economics, June 2000

On the Korean peninsula one of the greatest success stories of the post- war era confronts a famine-ridden and possibly nuclear- armed totalitarian state. The stakes are extraordinarily high for both North and South Korea, and for countries such as the United States that have a direct stake in these affairs.

This study, the most comprehensive volume to date on the subject, examines the current situation in the two Koreas in terms of three major crises: the nuclear confrontation between the United States and North Korea, the North Korean famine, and the South Korean financial crisis. Out of these, the future of the peninsula is then explored under three alternative scenarios: successful reform in North Korea, collapse and absorption (as happened in Germany), and muddling through in which North Korea, supported by foreign powers, makes ad hoc, regime-preserving reforms that fall short of fundamental transformation.

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Book Contents (Divided PDFs):

Preface 

Acknowledgments

1. Introduction 146.8KB

2. The South Korean Economy Until 1997 397.3KB

3. The North Korean Economy 546.6KB

4. The Nuclear Confrontation 225.0KB

5. The Slow-Motion Famine in the North 254.7KB

6. The Financial Crisis in the South 418.9KB

7. The Prospect of Successful Reform in the North 296.9KB

8. The Implications of North Korean Collapse 289.4KB

9. Can the North Muddle Through? 194.5KB

10. Conclusions 221.4KB

Appendix 104.7KB

References

Index

From the Publisher:

Winner of the prestigious Ohira Masayoshi Award for 2000-2001.

About the Author:

Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow, has been the Senior Economist for International Economics at the Council of Economic Advisers, as well as a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University, the University of Southern California, Tokyo University, Saitama University, the University of Ghana, and a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute.

He has written many articles on international economics and is the author of Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (2000) and Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future (1990). He is coauthor of Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (1998), Reconcilable Differences? United States-Japan Economic Conflict with C. Fred Bergsten (1993), Japan in the World Economy with Bela Balassa (1988), the editor of Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula (1998), and coeditor of Pacific Dynamism and the International Economic System (1993).

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