With one year to go, the prospects are that Beijing will deliver a technically excellent Olympic Games next year. Nevertheless, the Games are an enormous and complex task, so there is always some potential for things to go wrong.

China is coming under unprecedented international scrutiny on a wide range of issues and the Olympic Games will add to this pressure.

Western NGOs and the international media will test the capacity of the Olympic organisers and the Government to deal satisfactorily with difficult issues, including the environment and human rights. Taiwan is already proving a problem on the Torch Relay route.

On balance, however, China can be expected to make a good fist of the Games.

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On 8 August, the Chinese authorities celebrated the one-year countdown to the opening of next year’s Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. The scale of these celebrations was extraordinary, setting the scene for what most probably will be an extraordinary Olympic Games. They consisted of 63 events, ranging from sporting and artistic competitions, the launch of the Olympic theme song, 'We Are Ready’, specially written for the one-year countdown, and a major spectacular gathering in Tian'anmen Square, involving senior members of the International Olympic Committee, at which invitations were sent out to more than 200 National Olympic Committees around the world to gather in Beijing for the start of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad. This event marked the first time that such a significant ceremony has been held in the Olympic host city, rather than at IOC headquarters in Lausanne.

The last two Games indicate the potential for the atmosphere to change significantly and unexpectedly late in the project. In Sydney, twelve months out, all was going smoothly, giving no hint of the impending ticket controversy or the emergence of erratic and tyrannical behaviour on the part of the top leadership of the Organising Committee in the final run-up. The Sydney Games nevertheless were very well organised and successful. And a year before Athens 2004, the focus was on whether the venues and other infrastructure would be ready in time. As it happened, despite these concerns, the Athens Games were also well organised and successful.

With that reservation in mind, let us attempt to predict how the Beijing Games might go. A Lowy Issues Brief of August 2004 commented as follows: ‘with four years to go, the technical aspects of Beijing’s Olympic project are in excellent shape.’ Three years later, that judgment stands. Notwithstanding some potential problem areas, the Chinese Government and the Beijing Municipal Government, as well as the Olympic Organising Committee (BOCOG), give every sign of conscientious, sustained, comprehensive commitment to delivering a first-class Olympic Games. From time to time, the most senior leaders give some personal, public attention to the Olympic preparations, underlining the national importance of the project to China. In April this year, for example, President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao, and other senior Chinese leaders participated in voluntary tree planting in Beijing, near the Olympic park.

According to the official Beijing Olympic website, Hu told the volunteers, ‘afforestation is a matter that concerns the immediate interests of the people. Every citizen should assume his responsibility and actively participate in planting trees.’ Hu said this year is a critical time for Beijing Olympic Games preparation and he hoped Beijing municipal authorities could try their best to usher in the Olympics with a better environment of the capital Beijing. In July, Premier Wen said there would be no talk of extravagance or ostentation in organising the Olympic Games.

‘We should save every drop of water and every unit of electricity in the construction of the Olympic venues’, the Beijing News quoted Wen as saying. Wen also urged developers to ensure the quality and safety of Olympic projects and to consider how they will be used after the Games.

About the Lowy Institute:

The Lowy Institute is an independent international policy think tank based in Sydney. Its objective is to generate new ideas and dialogue on international developments and Australia’s role in the world. Its mandate is broad. It ranges across all the dimensions of international policy debate in Australia - economic, political and strategic – and it is not limited to a particular geographic region.

The Institute has two core tasks:

• To produce distinctive research and fresh policy options for Australia’s international policy.
  The Institute seeks to throw fresh light on issues of relevance to Australia through rigorous research, and then to generate workable policy ideas. The Institute also seeks to contribute to the wider international debate. We believe Australia can make a significant contribution to the global dialogue.
• To promote wide discussion of Australia’s role in the world.
  This is the Institute’s other vital task: to provide an accessible and high quality forum for discussion of Australian foreign policy and international relations, through debates, seminars, lectures, dialogues and conferences.

The Institute was established in April 2003 as the result of a gift by Mr Frank Lowy AC, one of Australia’s leading businessmen, to mark the 50th anniversary of his arrival in Australia.

The Institute is non-partisan and is home to a range of policy ideas. Its staff and Fellows speak with individual voices.

The Institute draws on the insights and experience of policy practitioners, academic experts and business people. It also seeks to bring new voices and external viewpoints into the Australian debate, for example through an active program of internships for young people and the involvement of members of the Australian diaspora.

The Institute is governed by a Board of Directors comprising individuals distinguished in public policy, scholarship and business. It has a core of research staff and Fellows but it also draws on external partners, both individual and institutional, and invites leading international figures to participate in the Institute’s activities.

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