How will China respond to U.S. ballistic missile defenses (BMD)? As Americans and others have intensely debated the merits of BMD over the last dozen years, this question has attracted relatively little attention in a debate that has focused until recently on the potential responses of Russia and the so-called “rogue states.”

The Chinese government has done its best to shift this debate, with an energetic diplomatic push to raise its concerns and engage in dialogue with interested Americans (and others). This push has included some very harsh criticism of U.S. BMD and repeated suggestions of some potentially dramatic departures in China’s strategic posture, of a kind that would have a ripple effect across Asia and potentially deny the United States the stability it seeks through BMD.

The Bush administration takes a different view, arguing in summer 2001 that “we do not believe that deployment of limited missile defenses should compel China to increase the pace and scale of its already ambitious effort to modernize its strategic nuclear forces.” The surprising silence from Beijing that followed U.S. withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty has fueled the belief in Washington that China’s attack on BMD was mostly rhetorical and is unlikely to result in the feared dramatic departures.

Where is the truth of the matter? Among the many potential Chinese responses to BMD, which are the likely ones? What adjustments to China’s military posture can reasonably be expected? What other implications might there be? ...

The evolutionary development of Chinese thinking and policy on BMD can be demarcated into the following five basic eras:
I- Strategic Infancy: 1955 to 1982
II- The Star Wars Era: 1983 to 1991
III- The Persian Gulf War and its Aftermath: 1992 to 1998
IV- Full Court Press Against TMD and NMD: 1999 to 2001
V- After U.S. ABM Withdrawal: 2002 and Beyond

Download China and Ballistic Missile Defense: 1955 to 2002 and Beyond

PDF format, 511KB, 51Pages.

In collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission (CEA)
Brad Roberts
Ifri Security Studies Department

Contents
Introduction _________________________________________________5
Strategic Infancy: 1955 to 1982___________________________________7
The Star Wars Era: 1983 to 1991 _________________________________15
The Persian Gulf War and its Aftermath: 1992 to 1998_________________23
Full Court Press Against TMD and NMD: 1999 to 2001________________27
After U.S. ABM Withdrawal: 2002 and Beyond_______________________35
Conclusion __________________________________________________49

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Proliferation Papers
Though it has long been a concern for security experts, proliferation has truly become an important political issue over the last decade, marked simultaneously by the nuclearization of South Asia, the strengthening of international regimes (TNP, CW, MTCR) and the discovery of fraud and trafficking, the number and gravity of which have surprised observers and analysts alike (Iraq in 1991, North Korea, Libyan and Iranian programs or the A. Q. Khan networks today).

To further the debate on complex issues that involve technical, regional, and strategic aspects, Ifri’s Security Studies Department organizes each year, in collaboration with the Atomic Energy Commission (Commissariat à l’énergie atomiqe, CEA), a series of closed seminars dealing with WMD proliferation, disarmament, and non-proliferation. Generally held in English these seminars take the form of a presentation by an international expert.

The Proliferation Papers is a collection, in the original version, of selected texts from these presentations. The following text is based on a presentation given by Brad Roberts at Ifri on March,19th, 2004.

Brad Roberts is a Senior Researcher at the Institute for Defense Analyses in Alexandria, Virginia, and an expert of WMD proliferation and arms control. An adjunct Professor at George Washington University, he chairs the Research Advisory Council of the Chemical and Biological Arms Control Institute, and is a consultant to the Los Alamos National Laboratories. He is also a member of the Board of Directors of the United States Committee of the Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific (CSCAP) where he cochairs its task force on confidence and security building measures. He is also a Consultant to the Los Alamos National Laboratories.

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