The balance of power in East Asia is stable and favors the United States, but the balance of influence is tipping toward Beijing. China’s growing weight stems from its size and market dynamism, reinforced by newfound military restraint and skillful diplomacy that have enhanced its ability to translate power into influence. The shift in the balance of influence, if unaddressed, could undermine U.S. interests.

China’s regional goals include expanding Chinese influence, isolating Taiwan politically, marginalizing Japan, maximizing energy security, and limiting vulnerability to U.S. pressure without stimulating balancing behavior. Beijing has sought to avoid confrontation with Washington and to reassure its neighbors of China’s benign intentions. Most East Asians now view China as a key trading partner and an economic opportunity rather than a threat.

China’s influence in Asia does face limits. Its booming export industries depend on imports from other Asian countries, and its military power lags far behind that of the United States and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Severe social and environmental problems tarnish China’s image.

Asian elites regard China’s military buildup as primarily aimed at Taiwan but harbor a residual wariness about China’s long-term intentions. East Asian governments are hedging by engaging China bilaterally and multilaterally while maintaining security ties with the United States and encouraging a larger Japanese and Indian regional role.

A perceived U.S. neglect of the region, coupled with American preoccupation with the war on terror, is accelerating the shift in the balance of influence. A concerted effort to refocus and enhance U.S. engagement with Asia is sorely needed. This should include active and high-level participation in regional diplomacy, enhanced cooperation on nontraditional security issues, welcoming a constructive Chinese regional role, and development of a comprehensive, government-wide strategy to pursue the full range of American objectives in Asia.

Download China’s Rising Influence in Asia: Implications for U.S. Policy

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Strategic Forum, NO. 231, April 2008

by Ellen L. Frost, James J. Przystup, and Phillip C. Saunders

Dr. Ellen L. Frost is an Adjunct Research Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) at the
National Defense University and a Visiting Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Dr. James J. Przystup and Dr. Phillip C. Saunders are Senior Research Fellows in INSS.

The Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) is a policy research and strategic gaming organization within the National Defense University (NDU) serving the Department of Defense, its components, and interagency partners.

The institute provides senior decisionmakers with timely, objective analysis and gaming events and supports NDU educational programs in the areas of international security affairs and defense studies. Through an active outreach program, including conferences and publications, INSS seeks to promote understanding of emerging strategic challenges and policy options.

The Strategic Forum series presents original research by members of NDU as well as other scholars and specialists in national security affairs from this country and abroad. The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government.

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