Bringing Chinese Perspectives to Washington

The mission of China Security is to improve the understanding of China amongst Western policy practitioners and the public by providing Chinese experts' authoritative analysis on critical traditional and nontraditional security issues that impact China's Strategic Development and its relations with the United States and the world.

 Debating Chinese Future

In this issue of China Security, 20 leading writers and thinkers give us their take on where China is, and where it is going, focusing on everything from China's military and economic power, to the internal challenges and contradictions which may undermine it.

In our full-length articles, two Chinese authors examine potential solutions to the perennial unrest in Tibet and the possibility for reconciliation between Beijing and the Dalai Lama. Meanwhile, two authors explore Beijing's readiness to provide adequate security and deal with mass protest during the Beijing Olympics.

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Contents:

Debating China’s Future
Li Cheng, Thomas P.M. Barnett, Harry Harding, Cui Liru, John J. Mearsheimer, Joseph S . Nye Jr., Rob Gifford, Mao Yushi, Bates Gill, Tang Shiping, Zhao Tingyang, Robert J. Barnett, David Shambaugh, June Teufel Dreyer, Pan Zhenqiang, Dan Blumenthal, Shi Yinhong, Robert S. Ross, Kenneth Lieberthal, Zha Daojiong, John Hamre and Xiang Lanxin

Protest and Policing: Challenges for the Beijing Olympics
Independence in Disguise
Situation Report: Quenching Olympic Thirst
Olympic Security Cooperation
A True “Middle-Way” Solution to Tibetan Unrest

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Published by World Security Institute China Program.

Debating China’s Future
Editor’s Notes: The Blind Men and the Elephant

In 2005, China Security was established with the vision of examining the breadth of China’s strategic development – from grassroots social policies to nuclear weapons – and its impact on the world. We did so, eyes wide open, cognizant of the risks of such whopping ambition. Like the blind men touching the different parts of the elephant, each thinking it is something different depending on where he touches, comprehending a colossus like China in any kind of sweeping sense is a similarly confounding task. In addition to the complexity of the country at cultural, political, social and strategic levels, there is also the time factor. Change in China moves at a phenomenal clip.

Despite these caveats, three years into our project, we feel it is time to take stalk of how far China has come. Plus, it is open season on China in light of all the attention holding Summer Olympics entails. To mark this important chapter in China’s journey, we have invited many of the leading thinkers on the subject, from inside and outside its borders, to reflect on China’s accomplishments and contemplate its future – in fewer than 500 words.

With the Olympics a kind of ”hurrah” for China’s 30 years of economic progress, we want to know if China has “arrived” as a great nation. And if so, what does it stand for? What does it have to offer the world besides another economic stanchion for the world economy? Will it challenge the international status quo or invest in its future?

In the essays that follow, a number of thematic threads emerged. Many struggle with the meaning of China’s growing economic power matched by its military build-up. Would China be friend, foe or both? Others dismiss talk of China’s ascendance in the world as ultimately subordinate to its domestic challenges. “Internal contradictions” are a prevailing theme, particularly among our Chinese authors. Still others attempt to sketch out what a unique worldview China might offer in the decades ahead. If any consensus is discernible, it can best be characterized as a deep uncertainty about where China is headed, how it will get there and the effect it will have on others and itself along the way.

These short essays would otherwise comprise another variant of “China’s rising,” however, a subtle but important shift has taken place in the discourse. Implicit in most of these think pieces is the assumption that, at least in relative terms, China’s rise is a fait accompli. Even five years ago, China’s rise was spoken of as a work in progress. Now, its ascendance, in an economic sense, has reached a certain plateau. Even among those who emphasize the salience of China’s internal contradictions as the key to its future, no one disagrees that those domestic issues themselves are a result of China’s impressive level of progress.

A number of conclusions flow from this. The certainty of China’s specific economic, political or military attainments is juxtaposed with the uncertainty of how China will employ its new-found progress. The discussion has shifted from means to intent, orientation and motivation. Although China’s material rise is indisputable, its direction is highly uncertain. The second phase of China’s ascendancy will be a far more complex one to handle, as many point out, both for China, initiating it and those countries on the receiving end.

Perhaps more pertinent than outsiders’ peering in with a sense of unease, China herself is not sure. As many of our authors correctly note, China’s progress is impressive by most economic and development standards, yet the “contradictions” in society have only increased. This is a profound issue for the country’s future, because it is China’s citizens who have benefited the most from its material growth and yet their uncertainty remains over what lies ahead. The quid pro quo for raising people’s level of prosperity is support for the government. This contract the government has made with its people has thus far held up, yet, the pressure for continuing progress to other fronts such as an effective judicial system, freedom of press, ethnic autonomy, human rights, and more continues. In short, progress has largely been in material terms, not in values, individual freedoms, or as one author calls it, “social capital.”

Nationalism has been employed to fill that gap, as several people note, and has succeeded to an extent. But this remains a salve, if a dangerous one, to the uncertainties and contradictions awaiting China. Rallying around the flag focuses on external injustices rather than on China’s most profound challenges, most of which are domestic. China must focus energy on building nonmaterial, value-based, even spiritual capital in society. As one essayist puts it, the Chinese must learn to “get along,” not just “get ahead.”

The uncertainties regarding China’s future among the Chinese and outsiders are connected. China’s behavior abroad will depend fundamentally on its domestic circumstances more than any other factor. Internal stability and confidence in the future are deeply reflective of their attitudes with the outside. This latest bout of nationalism was directly related to unrest in Tibet, and coincided with rising inflation and a social contract between party and people increasingly under strain.

China’s domestic state of mind is increasingly felt outside its borders. The Chinese government can no longer control information sufficiently to tame adverse reaction to events, whether its own egregious policy faux pas, the population’s reaction to national disasters – witness the nationwide response to the recent earthquake – or national insult as with the torch relay. The latter was not merely a government-controlled overreaction by an easily manipulated and insular populace. It was because of China’s high level of connectedness with the outside that images of disruptions in the torch relay fanned resentment and outrage across China. In fact, much of the strident criticism came from abroad, with little government coercion as one of our essayist’s points out.

One further implication of the uncertainty over China’s future is the window it creates for other nations, particularly the United States, to have a role in influencing it. This may come from a presidential resolve to check China’s negative tendencies, as one author writes, but, it also arises from not treating China precisely as the threat we hope it does not become. Most importantly, outside influence, large or small, will not materialize through sermonizing about human rights and currency policies, but helping build the bridges that will connect the Chinese to a larger international community. Because, concludes Xiang Lanxin, ultimately it is Chinese people who will decide the nations’ fate, no government can escape that reality. How China will get there is another elephant for the blind men to figure out.

- Eric Hagt, Chief Editor

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