China has been a star in the development firmament for two decades, managing the largest reduction in poverty in human history and transforming the country into an economic power to be reckoned with. Even if growth slows somewhat – as one would expect when the easy ways to raise productivity are exhausted – it is likely to emerge in the next few decades as both the world’s largest economy and largest trading nation. But China’s transition to a mature economy supporting a high standard of living for its citizens is not a sure thing.