The expanding scope of China1s international activities is one of the newest and most important trends in global affairs. Its global activism is continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about its current and long-term intentions. This monograph analyzes how China defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing them, and what it means for U.S. economic and security interests.

China is now a global actor of significant and growing importance. It is active in regions and on issues that were once only peripheral to its interests, and it is effectively using tools previously unavailable. It is no longer appropriate to talk of integrating China into the international system; by and large, it is already there. Its international behavior is clearly altering the dynamics of the current international system, but it is not transforming its structure.

China's global activism is continually changing and has so many dimensions that it immediately raises questions about its current and future intentions and the implications for global stability and prosperity. This study examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests.

Key Findings about China’s International Behavior
China has been largely working within—indeed, deftly leveraging— the current international system to accomplish its foreign policy objectives.

It sees more opportunities than constraints in using the current system to advance its interests. China’s international behavior is not ideologically driven, and China is not pursuing a revolutionary foreign policy that seeks to acquire new territory, forge balancing coalitions, or advance alternative models of economic development or global security.

China is not trying to tear down or radically revise the current constellation of global rules, norms, and institutions. Rather, it has been seeking to master them to advance its interests—an approach that, to date, has proven quite productive for Beijing.

China is also dissatisfied with certain attributes of the current status quo, such as the undetermined status of Taiwan and U.S. global predominance in both security and economic affairs. Beijing’s response has been to work within the system to address its concerns; this has included attempts to reduce the relative power and influence of the United States, especially U.S. actions directly affecting Chinese interests.

China does not currently seek to confront the United States to erect a new international order. But China does challenge some U.S. interests, particularly in Asia. On balance, China has been occasionally assertive but seldom aggressive in pursuing this and other objectives.

China’s approach has been geared toward attracting and binding others, rather than directly challenging their interests: It is more gravitational than confrontational. It seeks to create an environment in Asia in which states are drawn to, reliant on, and thereby deferential to Beijing, as a way to minimize constraints and maximize its freedom of action.

In part by design and in part by default, China is diversifying its sources of prosperity, security, and status—a trend that holds major implications for China’s global influence and U.S.-China relations.

China is using its diplomacy to expand its access to markets, investment, technology, and resources to fuel domestic development. It is developing new diplomatic relationships and expanding existing ones with numerous power centers including global and regional institutions. It is also diversifying its sources of international status and legitimacy, to broaden China’s appeal.

Chinese leaders continue to approach their foreign policy and foreign relations through the prism of internal affairs, to use foreign policy to assist the increasingly complex tasks of economic and social development at home. This does not mean that China is an insular nation that just wants to be left alone or that Chinese leaders view external affairs as a secondary concern. The reality of China’s international behavior could not be further from that.

For China, acting locally now requires that it think globally. The links between domestic and international affairs for China have become stronger and have assumed new dimensions in the last decade, but it is this linkage that will continue to drive China’s international behavior.

China’s twin goals of maintaining economic growth and domestic stability (and, thus, the continued rule of the Chinese Communist Party) remain the prevailing motivations for its external behavior. As China’s global profile grows, China wants a “seat at the table” to play a greater role in shaping global rules, norms, and institutions.

This is most evident in China’s multilateral diplomacy: China has created new organizations and expanded its participation in existing ones. China’s role as an agenda- and rule-setter will only become a more prominent feature of its diplomacy in the coming years. However, China’s actual record in such rule-making is quite limited. Although China clearly wants to be part of such processes, it is unclear what new rules or norms it seeks to advance, aside from a greater voice for itself.

To date, Beijing has promoted few genuinely new ideas and the institutions it has created are not meant to compete with or replace existing ones. Also, other Asian powers remain wary of China’s diplomatic activism and have sought to limit China’s attempts to extend its influence through participation in such organizations.

Furthermore, China’s international behavior is a deeply transitional phenomenon. China’s perceptions, objectives and policies are fixed for now but they are also evolving. Chinese policymakers clearly have objectives in mind, but they are groping their way forward with newfound power, influence, responsibilities, expectations, and constraints. China’s international behavior is increasingly driven, as well as constrained, by both domestic imperatives and a dynamic global security environment.

Chinese foreign policy reflects a precarious balancing of competing internal and external demands, which are growing in number and variety. These demands, ultimately, will determine the content and character of China’s future international behavior—contributing, at times, to seemingly contradictory or inconsistent behaviors. (See pp. 201–207.)

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Evan S. Medeiros
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release; distribution unlimited
© Copyright 2009 RAND Corporation

INTRODUCTION
China’s economic and diplomatic interests now span the globe, having gradually moved beyond the Asia-Pacific region in the last decade. China is active on issues and in regions that were previously only peripheral to Beijing’s calculations, notably, Latin America and the Middle East.

Its diplomacy is affecting the conduct of international relations at virtually all levels of the global system, and its decisions are influencing international perceptions, relationships, institutions, and processes. China has become central to managing, if not resolving, many of the traditional and nontraditional security issues facing the international community.

Within Asia, China’s strategic periphery, it has become a preeminent power, deeply involved in all aspects of economic and security affairs. China has become a fulcrum of change in the regional order, further ensuring that its pivotal role in Asia will deepen in the future.

These trends beg the following questions: What are China’s objectives as a regional power and as a global actor? How is it pursuing them and to what effect on the respective regions? ...

PREFACE
The expanding scope of China’s international activities is one of the newest and most important trends in global affairs. China is increasingly present and involved in many parts of the world, including in regions once only marginal to Beijing’s interests. China’s global activism has arisen so rapidly and has so many dimensions that it immediately and naturally raises questions about China’s intentions and the implications for U.S. security interests.

U.S. policymakers and strategists would like to understand more fully how China defines its international objectives, how it is pursuing them, how effective it has been, and whether it seeks to undermine U.S. power and influence.

To address these issues, this monograph analyzes the content, character, and execution of China’s international behavior. It examines how China views its security environment, how it defines its foreign policy objectives, how it is pursuing these objectives, and the consequences for U.S. economic and security interests. The breadth and the rapidity of change in China’s international activities are daunting to analyze, let alone to understand. This monograph aims to make such assessments more accessible and meaningful.

This research is relevant for U.S. policymakers and strategists who are focused on managing U.S.-China relations, on shaping Chinese diplomacy, and on ensuring that China’s global activism does not undercut U.S. foreign policy goals. This research also helps identify opportunities for the United States and China to broaden and deepen bilateral cooperation. ...

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