SUMMARY: In the post-Cold War era and in the early 21st century, the region of Northeast Asia remains one of the most unstable areas in Asia and in the world compared with other regions of Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Southern Asia, Middle East, Eastern Europe, Africa, and Latin America.

And it could become a harsh strategic confrontational area between major powers in Asia and in the world in the future, if those major powers like the United States, China, Japan, and Russia do not manage their relationships well. It can also become a place of hot war or new Cold War in the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait, if the two Koreas and two sides of the Taiwan Strait problem cannot manage the unresolved issues in their relations.

Northeast Asia is also on track to become another center of the global economy, science and technology, military, and international politics. Opportunities as well as challenges to Asia and the world come from the “rising” China and Asia.

A new framework for Northeast Asian security must cope with the legacy of six decades of frequent changes in the region’s great power relations. In order to realize the goals of the Joint Agreement in the Six-Party Talks, multilateralism is becoming more important.

The U.S. leadership faces challenges from the Sino-U.S. rivalry that is now being better managed because of cooperation over North Korea; the Russo-U.S. rivalry that has intensified, although there is potential to stabilize it in this region; Sino-Russian partnership, which has become closer in response to the nuclear crisis but could be tested by progress that would reveal conflicting national interests; North Korean belligerence, which is unlikely to end even if the nuclear crisis is brought under control; South Korean balancing, which would remain even under a conservative president; and Sino-Japanese rivalry, which is somewhat under control in 2007 but remains the main barrier to regionalism.

A U.S. regional strategy is needed that addresses all of these challenges in the context of the Six-Party Talks.

Download East Asian Security: Two Views

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The Security Challenges in Northeast Asia: A Chinese View
Chu Shulong

Security Challenges to the United States in Northeast Asia:
Looking beyond the Transformation of the Six-Party Talks
Gilbert Rozman

November 2007

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FOREWORD

Northeast Asia is the most dynamic sector of the global economy, and the most dynamic element is undoubtedly the rise of China. However, in this region conflicts dating back to the Cold War have not yet found resolution. The imbalance between economic progress and political stagnation ensures that international affairs pose many challenges to governments and to students alike. The two papers herein, originally presented at the Strategic Studies Institute’s 2007 annual Strategy Conference, highlight the challenges posed by the rise of China and by the new possibility for making progress on Korean issues due to the Six-Party Agreements on North Korean proliferation of February 13, 2007.

In keeping with the conference’s theme, “Regional Challenges to American Security,” Dr. Chu Shulong, the
first paper’s author, presents a view of China’s interests, goals, and perspectives on Northeast Asian issues. In
the second paper, one of America’s most insightful writers on Asian security and Asian regionalism, Dr.
Gilbert Rozman, presents an American view of the possibilities for forging a new political order around
Korea. Combined, the two papers underscore the complexities and risks as well as the opportunities for
political leaders in Northeast Asia in contemplating new policies and actions to readjust the region’s
political dynamics with its economic dynamism.

Douglas C. Lovelace, JR.
Director, Strategic Studies Institute

BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF THE AUTHORS

CHU SHULONG is a Professor of Political Science and International Relations at the School of Public Policy and Management and is the deputy director of the Institute of International Strategic and Development Studies at Tsinghua University in Beijing, China. From September 2006 until June 2007 he was a visiting fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution in Washington, DC. He was previously director for the North American Studies Division of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations. He is also a Professor at China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Party School and an advisor to China’s Central Television (CCTV) international reporting.

Dr. Chu’s research covers political theory and Chinese politics, international relations, focusing on U.S. China policy and the Sino-U.S. relations, Asian security, and Chinese foreign and security policies. His most recent publications include The Sino-US Relations in the Post-Cold War Era; Basic Theories of International Relations; The World, the U.S., and China; Political Theories; and a forthcoming book, The Peaceful Rise and Development: China’s Foreign Strategy and Policy. Dr. Chu received a B.A. from Dalian Foreign Languages University, an M.A. in Law from the Beijing University of International Relations, and a Ph.D. in Political Science from the George Washington University.

GILBERT ROZMAN is the Musgrave Professor of Sociology at Princeton University. His research concentrates on China, Japan, Russia, and South Korea, including comparisons, bilateral relations, and regionalism. Recent co-edited books include: Russian Strategic Thinking toward Asia (2006), Japanese Strategic Thinking toward Asia (2007), and Korea at the Center: The Dynamics of Regionalism in Northeast Asia (2006).

Recent monographs are Northeast Asia’s Stunted Regionalism: Bilateral Distrust in the Shadow of Globalization (2004) and Strategic Thinking about the Korean Nuclear Crisis: Four Parties Caught between North Korea and the United States (forthcoming). Dr. Rozman holds a B.A. from Carleton College and a Ph.D. from Princeton University.

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