The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has completed an assessment of undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources in all areas north of the Arctic Circle. Using a geology-based probabilistic methodology, the USGS estimated the occurrence of undiscovered oil and gas in 33 geologic provinces thought to be prospective for petroleum. The sum of the mean estimates for each province indicates that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur in offshore areas.

Introduction:

In May 2008 a team of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists completed an appraisal of possible future additions to world oil and gas reserves from new field discoveries in the Arctic. This Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA) evaluated the petroleum potential of all areas north of the Arctic Circle (66.56° north latitude); quantitative assessments were conducted in those geologic areas considered to have at least a 10-percent chance of one or more significant oil or gas accumulations. For the purposes of the study, a significant accumulation contains recoverable volumes of at least 50 million barrels of oil and/or oil-equivalent natural gas.

The study included only those resources believed to be recoverable using existing technology, but with the important assumptions for offshore areas that the resources would be recoverable even in the presence of permanent sea ice and oceanic water depth. No economic considerations are included in these initial estimates; results are presented without reference to costs of exploration and development, which will be important in many of the assessed areas. So-called nonconventional resources, such as coal bed methane, gas hydrate, oil shale, and tar sand, were explicitly excluded from the study. Full details of the CARA study will be published later.

A number of onshore areas in Canada, Russia, and Alaska already have been explored for petroleum, resulting in the discovery of more than 400 oil and gas fields north of the Arctic Circle. These fields account for approximately 240 billion barrels (BBOE) of oil and oil-equivalent natural gas, which is almost 10 percent of the world’s known conventional petroleum resources (cumulative production and remaining proved reserves).

Nevertheless, most of the Arctic, especially offshore, is essentially unexplored with respect to petroleum. The Arctic Circle encompasses about 6 percent of the Earth’s surface, an area of more than 21 million km2 (8.2 million mi2), of which almost 8 million km2 (3.1 million mi2) is onshore and more than 7 million km2 (2.7 million mi2) is on continental shelves under less than 500 m of water. The extensive Arctic continental shelves may constitute the geographically largest unexplored prospective area for petroleum remaining on Earth.

Download Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal: Estimates of Undiscovered Oil and Gas North of the Arctic Circle

PDF format, 2.6MB, 4Pages.

"The total mean undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources of the Arctic are estimated to be approximately 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids."

Visit USGS Arctic Energy Assessment Website

Arctic Assessment Overview

The Arctic is an area of high petroleum resource potential, low data density, high geologic uncertainty and sensitive environmental conditions. A large portion of the remaining global endowment of oil and gas resources has long been thought to exist in the high northern latitudes of Russia, Norway, Greenland, United States, and Canada. However, the quality, quantity, and distribution of these resources are poorly understood.

To improve the understanding of the petroleum resources in this area, the USGS is undertaking a multi-year research effort, termed the Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal (CARA), to produce a comprehensive, unbiased probabilistic estimate of undiscovered petroleum resources in the high northern latitudes. This research effort is being conducted in collaboration with several U.S. and international entities. When completed, the results from the CARA will provide the first publicly available petroleum resource estimate of the area north of the Arctic Circle in its entirety.

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