Central Asia and the South Caucasus is a region that has witnessed violent clashes both within and between states in recent decades. Moreover, conflict is likely to be a continuing problem over the next 10-15 years. Depending on how the region develops, the form and degree of conflict may or may not grow to involve other states, including the United States.

The authors identify and evaluate key faultlines in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and how they affect the like-lihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. These faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions, foreign interests, and influence; and the impact of competition over natural resources.

The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife and examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 2010-2015 time frame.

Although this research was largely completed prior to the 9/11 attacks on the United States, the report has been updated in light of the changed security environment and U.S. military presence on the ground in the Caspian region.

The operations in Afghanistan have not altered the faultlines; they are long-term and structural in nature. In fact, U.S. presence on the ground highlights the importance of understanding these faultlines and responding to them effectively.

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INTRODUCTION
The breakup of the Soviet Union led to the emergence of eight new states in the strategically important crossroads located north of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region, west of China, and south of Russia. Three of them (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) are situated in the European periphery—the mountainous area between the Greater Caucasus mountain range (defined by geographers as the boundary of Europe) and Turkey and Iran.

In the Soviet lexicon, based on a Russo-centric viewpoint, this area was referred to as the Trans-Caucasus. A name for this subregion that is more neutral in connotation—and one that is preferable in the post-Soviet era—is South Caucasus. The other five states (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) are situated in the vast steppes and deserts stretching eastward from the Caspian Sea to the Altai and Pamir mountain ranges of Central Asia. ...

PREFACE
This report is the final product of a project entitled “Sources of Conflict in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.” The project was intended to help Army intelligence analysts improve their understanding of the potential for armed conflict in the region of Central Asia and South Caucasus and how such outbreaks might escalate to a level that could involve U.S. forces.

This report identifies and evaluates the key conflict-producing faultlines in Central Asia and South Caucasus. The faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions and foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition for natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife. The report also examines the operational challenges the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 10- to 15-year time frame.

This research was completed largely prior to the September 11 attacks on the United States. The report has been updated to take into account the changed security environment and the U.S. military presence on the ground in the Central Asian and South Caucasus region. The operations in Afghanistan have not altered the faultlines. They are long-term and structural in nature. The current U.S. presence on the ground means that they need to be taken into account even more than previously.

The research was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army, and conducted in the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program of RAND Arroyo Center. The Arroyo Center is a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the United States Army.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Olga Oliker (Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology) is an associate political scientist at RAND. Her research focuses primarily on defense issues and the former Soviet Union, including military reform, military doctr

Thomas S. Szayna (Ph.D., Political Science, University of California, Los Angeles) is the associate director of the Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program, Arroyo Center, at RAND. His research includes strategic planning, NATO military force structure

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