By Christopher L. Delgado, Nikolas Wada, Mark W. Rosegrant, Siet Meijer, and Mahfuzuddin Ahmed. Jointly published by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and WorldFish Center, 2003

"This analysis of world fish markets to 2020 is the first of its kind that is firmly rooted in modeling of supply and demand based on economic theory, taking into account economic and technological as well as biological variables, and also analyzing implications for equity as well as international trade under alternative scenarios.This book is bound to become a seminal contribution in this field."

"We have all heard about the crisis in fisheries: dwindling catches, swordfishermen out of work, and the environ- mental questions that are dimming hopes for aquaculture. Here, five experts apply thoughtful scenario-building and solid economic analysis to construct a plausible picture of what this vital industry will look like in 2020.Their work should command the serious attention of policymakers in the developing world as in the North. "

About the Book:

The seemingly inexhaustible oceans have proved to be finite after all. Capture of wild fish have leveled off since the mid-1980s, and many stocks of fish are fished so heavily that their future is threatened. And yet the world appetite for fish has continued to increase, particularly as urban populations and incomes grow in developing countries. Aquaculture--fish farming--has arrived to meet this increased demand. Production of fish from aquaculture has exploded in the past 20 years and continues to expand around the world. But will aquaculture be sufficient to provide affordable fish to the world over the next 20 years? And what environmental and poverty problems will aquaculture face as it expands?

Using a state-of-the-art computer model of global supply and demand for food and feed commodities, this book projects the likely changes in the fisheries sector over the next two decades. As prices for most food commodities fall, fish prices are expected to rise, reflecting demand for fish that outpaces the ability of the world to supply it. The model shows that developing countries will consume and produce a much greater share of the world fish in the future, and trade in fisheries commodities will also increase. The authors show the causes and implications of these and other changes, and argue for specific actions and policies that can improve outcomes for the poor and for the environment. 

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