"Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World" is the fourth unclassified report prepared by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) in recent years that takes a long-term view of the future. It offers a fresh look at how key global trends might develop over the next 15 years to influence world events.

Our report is not meant to be an exercise in prediction or crystal ball-gazing. Mindful that there are many possible "futures," we offer a range of possibilities and potential discontinuities, as a way of opening our minds to developments we might otherwise miss.

Surprises and Unintended Consequences
As we have made clear throughout this volume, the next 15-20 years contain more contingencies than certainties. All actors— not just the United States—will be affected by unforeseen “shocks.” For various reasons the US appears better able than most to absorb those shocks, but US fortunes also ride on the strength and resiliency of the entire international system, which we judge to be more fragile and less prepared for the implications of obvious trends like energy security, climate change, and increased conflict, let alone surprises.

While, by their nature, surprises are not easily anticipated, we have tried through the scenarios to lay out possible alternative futures and each is suggestive of possible changes in the US role.

A World Without the West. In this scenario the US withdraws and its role is diminished. In dealing with unstable parts of the world in its neighborhood like Afghanistan, China, and India, the Central Asians must form or bolster other partnerships—in this case the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. The fragmentation and breakdown of the global order into regional and other blocs—while not on the scale of US-Soviet bipolar split—probably would usher in an era of slower economic growth and globalization, less effective action on transnational issues like climate change and energy security, and the potential for increased political instability.

October Surprise. The lack of effective management of the tradeoffs among globalization, economic growth, and environmental damage is shared widely among more players than the US. Implicit in the scenario is the need for better US leadership and stronger multilateral institutions if the world is to avoid even more devastating crises. The results of miscalculation on the part of others—such as the Chinese—have significant political costs, which probably would make it more difficult for the US and others to put together a plan for more sustainable economic development, including conflicts among the major powers.

BRICs’ Bust-Up. In this scenario, growing great power rivalries and increasing energy insecurity lead to a military confrontation between India and China. The US is perceived by Beijing as favoring India to China’s detriment. Great power war is averted, but the protagonists must rely on a third party—in this case Brazil—to help reconstitute the international fabric. Given the BRICs’ disarray, the United States’ power is greatly enhanced, but the international system is in for a bumpy ride as the military clash leads to internal upheavals increasing nationalist fervor.

Politics Is Not Always Local. On some issues, such as the environment, a seismic shift in government versus nonstate actor authorities has occurred. For the first time, a coalition of nonstate actors is seen by a large number of electorates as better representing “planetary” interests and, in this scenario, governments must heed their advice or face serious political costs. This may not always be the case since on other more traditional national security issues, national, ethnic, class and other differences are likely to re-emerge, undercutting the clout of transnational political movements. The US, like other governments, must adapt to the changing political landscape.

Leadership Will Be Key. As we indicated at the beginning of the study, human actions are likely to be the crucial determinant of the outcomes. Historically, as we have pointed out, leaders and their ideas— positive and negative—were among the biggest game-changers during the last century. Individually and collectively over the next 15-20 years, leaders are likely to be crucial to how developments turn out, particularly in terms of ensuring a more positive outcome.

As we have emphasized, today’s trends appear to be heading toward a potentially more fragmented and conflicted world over the next 15-20 years, but bad outcomes are not inevitable. International leadership and cooperation will be necessary to solve the global challenges and to understand the complexities surrounding them. This study is meant as an aid in that process: by laying out some of the alternative possibilities we hope to help policymakers steer us toward positive solutions.

Visit Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World Website

You can download full report in PDF format.

The National Intelligence Council (NIC) is the Intelligence Community's (IC's) center for midterm and long-term strategic thinking. Its primary functions are to:

    * Support the DNI in his role as head of the Intelligence Community.
    * Provide a focal point for policymakers to task the Intelligence Community to answer their questions.
    * Reach out to nongovernment experts in academia and the private sector to broaden the Intelligence Community's perspective.
    * Contribute to the Intelligence Community's effort to allocate its resources in response to policymakers' changing needs.
    * Lead the Intelligence Community's effort to produce National Intelligence Estimates (NIEs) and other NIC products.

Download Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World

PDF format, 8.5MB, 120Pages.

Contents
Executive Summary
Introduction: A Transformed World
More Change than Continuity
Alternative Futures
Chapter 1: The Globalizing Economy
Back to the Future
Growing Middle Class
State Capitalism: A Post-Democratic Marketplace Rising in the East?
Bumpy Ride in Correcting Current Global Imbalances
Multiple Financial Nodes
Diverging Development Models, but for How Long?
Chapter 2: The Demographics of Discord
Populations Growing, Declining, and Diversifying—at the Same Time
The Pensioner Boom: Challenges of Aging Populations
Persistent Youth Bulges
Changing Places: Migration, Urbanization, and Ethnic Shifts
Demographic Portraits: Russia, China, India, and Iran
Chapter 3: The New Players
Rising Heavyweights: China and India
Other Key Players
Up-and-Coming Powers
Global Scenario I: A World Without the West
Chapter 4: Scarcity in the Midst of Plenty?
The Dawning of a Post-Petroleum Age?
The Geopolitics of Energy
Water, Food, and Climate Change
Global Scenario II: October Surprise
Chapter 5: Growing Potential for Conflict
A Shrinking Arc of Instability by 2025?
Growing Risk of a Nuclear Arms Race in the Middle East
New Conflicts Over Resources?
Terrorism: Good and Bad News
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Iraq: Local Trajectories and Outside Interests
Global Scenario III: BRICs’ Bust-Up
Chapter 6: Will the International System Be Up to the Challenges?
Multipolarity without Multilateralism
How Many International Systems?
A World of Networks
Global Scenario IV: Politics is Not Always Local
Chapter 7: Power-Sharing in a Multipolar World
Demand for US Leadership Likely to Remain Strong, Capacities Will Shrink
New Relationships and Recalibrated Old Partnerships
Less Financial Margin of Error
More Limited Military Superiority
Surprises and Unintended Consequences
Leadership Will Be Key

Comments (0)

Name

Email

Comment

smaller | bigger

Add Comment