The International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030.

CONTENTS
Energy Information Administration / International Energy Outlook 2008 iii
Highlights . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook . . .. . . . . . . . . 7
Outlook for World Energy Consumption by Source .  . . . . . . . 8
Delivered Energy Consumption by End-Use Sector. . . . . . . . . . . 11
World Economic Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Major Sources of Uncertainty in the Projections .. . . . . . . . . 17
References . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Liquid Fuels. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
World Liquids Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
World Oil Prices . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
World Liquids Production. . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Oil Reserves and Resources. .  . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
References . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33
Natural Gas . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
World Natural Gas Demand . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
World Natural Gas Supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Reserves and Resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
References . . . . . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Coal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
World Coal Consumption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
World Coal Production . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
World Coal Trade . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
World Coal Reserves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
References . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . 57
Electricity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Electricity Supply by Energy Source.  . . . . . . . . . . 62
Regional Outlook . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
Transportation Sector Energy Consumption  . . . . . . . . 79
OECD Countries . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Non-OECD Countries . .  . . . . . . . . . . . 84
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Reference Case . . . . . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
Alternative Macroeconomic Growth Cases . . .  . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Alternative Price Cases . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

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Energy Information Administration
Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting
U.S. Department of Energy
Washington, DC 20585
September 2008

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PREFACE

This report presents international energy projections through 2030, prepared by the Energy Information Administration, including outlooks for major energy fuels and associated carbon dioxide emissions.   

The International Energy Outlook 2008 (IEO2008) presents an assessment by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the outlook for international energy markets through 2030. U.S. projections appearing in IEO2008 are consistent with those published in EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2008 (AEO2008), which was prepared using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). IEO2008 is provided as a service to energy managers and analysts, both in government and in the private sector. The projections are used by international agencies, Federal and State governments, trade associations, and other planners and decisionmakers. They are published pursuant to the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 (Public Law 95-91), Section 205(c).

Projections in IEO2008 are divided according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development members (OECD) and non-members (non-OECD). There are three basic country groupings in the OECD: North America (United States, Canada, and Mexico); OECD Europe; and OECD Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Australia/New Zealand) (see Appendix K for complete regional definitions). Non-OECD is divided into five separate regional subgroups: non-OECD Europe and Eurasia, non-OECD Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Central and South America. Russia is represented in non-OECD Europe and Eurasia; China and India are represented in non-OECD Asia; and Brazil is represented in Central and South America.

IEO2008 focuses exclusively on marketed energy. Non-marketed energy sources, which continue to play an important role in some developing countries, are not included in the estimates. The IEO2008 projections are based on U.S. and foreign government laws in effect on January 1, 2008. The potential impacts of pending or proposed legislation, regulations, and standards are not reflected in the projections, nor are the impacts of legislation for which the implementing mechanisms have not yet been announced.

The report begins with a review of world trends in energy demand and the major macroeconomic assumptions used in deriving the IEO2008 projections, along with the major sources of uncertainty in the forecast. The time frame for historical data begins with 1980 and extends to 2005, and the projections extend to 2030. High economic growth and low economic growth cases were developed to depict a set of alternative growth paths for the energy projections. The two cases consider higher and lower growth paths for regional gross domestic product (GDP) than are assumed in the reference case. IEO2008 also includes a high price case and, alternatively, a low price case. The resulting projections—and the uncertainty associated with international energy projections in general—are discussed in Chapter 1, “World Energy Demand and Economic Outlook.”

Regional projections for energy consumption by fuel— liquids (primarily petroleum), natural gas, and coal— are presented in Chapters 2, 3, and 4, along with reviews of the current status of each fuel on a worldwide basis. Chapter 5 discusses the projections for world electricity markets—including nuclear power, hydropower, and other commercial renewable energy resources— and presents forecasts of world installed generating capacity. Chapter 6 includes a detailed look at the world’s transportation energy use. Finally, Chapter 7 discusses the outlook for global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions.

Appendix A contains summary tables for the IEO2008 reference case projections of world energy consumption, GDP, energy consumption by fuel, carbon dioxide emissions, and regional population growth. Summary tables of projections for the high and low economic growth cases are provided in Appendixes B and C, respectively, and projections for the high and low price cases are provided in Appendixes D and E, respectively. Reference case projections of delivered energy consumption by end-use sector and region are presented in Appendix F. Appendix G contains summary tables of projections for world liquids production in all cases. Appendix H contains summary tables of reference case projections for installed electric power capacity by fuel and regional electricity generation by fuel. Appendix I includes a set of comparisons of projections from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook 2007 with the IEO2008 projections. Comparisons of the IEO2008 and IEO2007 projections are also presented in Appendix I. Appendix J describes the models used to generate the IEO2008 projections, and Appendix K defines the regional designations included in the report. 

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