After Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran is one of the most important U.S. policy concerns. The country appears to be on its way to becoming a nuclear power in the world’s most volatile and violent region. Iran has been heavily involved in the Iraqi conflict, backing Shia political parties and training militias, and is the source of key components of the most lethal roadside bombs.

Iran’s current president has made highly inflammatory statements concerning the United States, Israel, and Western Europe. The country does not confine its provocations to rhetoric, providing weapons and financial support to Hizbullah, a group responsible for repeated attacks on Israel.

Purpose

The purpose of this monograph is to identify opportunities for U.S. policymakers to influence Iranian behavior along lines more favorable to U.S. interests and to evaluate potential domestic repercussions within Iran from potential military actions against the country. It also defines probable limits on the effectiveness of certain policies given current political, demographic, and economic conditions. It concludes by recommending and evaluating the likely effectiveness of potential U.S. policies that might exploit these vulnerabilities.

Implications for U.S. Policy

At least in the near term, the Iranian regime is likely to be relatively stable and resistant to external pressures for dramatic change. But societal conditions for a more-constructive relationship with the United States exist: In contrast with the Arab Middle East, the United States is popular in Iran. Long-term trends suggest that Iran is likely to become more democratic and less obdurate.

U.S. policies vis-à-vis the Iranian government need to be designed with these conditions in mind. Although coercive strategies are possible and could achieve some specific policy goals, moving Iran toward a more generally cooperative stance will require a focus on encouraging tendencies and policies in Iranian society that favor the expansion of economic and personal freedoms.

Broadly speaking, the U.S. government has opportunities to encourage Iranians, including members of ethnic groups, to push for expanded civil liberties and democratic practices in Iran. The United States also has the ability to encourage policy changes in Iran that would liberalize the economy, thereby possibly strengthening nongovernmental actors. Such an approach will not yield immediate fruit, and its ambitions will need to be modest. And as long as relations are so hostile, U.S. initiatives will require deft handling, perhaps more so than in the past.

Under these conditions, we argue that U.S. policy should focus on creating conditions for effective relations over the long haul. These policy options fall into three broad categories:

1. fostering conditions for a more-pluralistic, more-democratic political system by engaging with Iranian society
2. weakening the ability of the Iranian government to clamp down
3. penalizing the Iranian government or its officials for pursuing policies that harm the United States.

To foster conditions for a more pluralistic Iran, once the current crackdown in Iran moderates, the U.S. government should expand its public diplomatic policy by

• funding programs that facilitate contacts between Iranians and Americans more generously, especially those focusing on educational and other exchanges
• encouraging U.S. officials and private individuals to provide interviews and commentary for Iranian media and expand U.S.– supported radio broadcasts and other programs in local languages to provide unbiased information on and a forum for discussion of major social issues.

To weaken the ability of the Iranian government to clamp down on groups advocating increased pluralism, the U.S. government should

• mute U.S. policy statements advocating regime change; security forces often use these as an excuse for detaining individuals seeking more freedom
• discourage ethnic groups from revolting against the Iranian regime; Iranian security forces have convincingly shown that they can handle restive ethnic groups, and violent opposition to Iranian rule is more likely to entrench the current security and political forces than to elicit a positive change in regime policies
• support International Monetary Fund and World Bank efforts to encourage better economic management in Iran; this will help expand the sphere for private sector activity
• not oppose Iran’s accession to the World Trade Organization.

None of these developments would threaten U.S. interests or reward Iran for behavior inimical to U.S. interests. However, in a number of instances, the Iranian government or its officials have pursued policies hostile to the United States. To discourage pursuit of these activities and to limit new sources of revenue for Iranian government coffers, the U.S. government should

• maintain the embargo on gas liquefaction and gas-to-liquids technologies, which is likely to prevent Iran from developing its natural gas resources for export; keep the embargo as a bargaining chip until assured that Iranian policies have become more congruent with U.S. interests
• expand contingency plans to seize Iranian foreign accounts
• encourage U.S. allies to bar selected Iranian officials from obtaining visas.

The U.S. government is often accused of having a short attention span. But the United States has successfully pursued long-term policies, as in the containment of the Soviet Union, that have yielded considerable results. With Iran, the U.S. government will again need to keep an eye on the long term, communicating with the current government but also encouraging more discussion among Iranians and more contacts and interactions between Iranians and Americans. Societies and governments change. The U.S. government has some ability to foster favorable trends in Iran, but these policies will take time to come to fruition.

Visit Iran's Political, Demographic, and Economic Vulnerabilities RAND Website

You can download full publication in PDF format.

Keith Crane, Rollie Lal, Jeffrey Martini
Prepared for the United States Air Force

2008, RAND Corporation

Preface:

This monograph is intended to help analysts and policymakers assess the political, demographic, and economic vulnerabilities of Iran to potential U.S. policy measures. The study dissects the political complexities and vulnerabilities of the Iranian government, evaluates ethnic and demographic tensions in Iran, and assesses recent economic developments and potential trajectories of future economic growth. It concludes with a set of policy recommendations for the U.S. government based on the analysis.

The research documented here was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff, Plans and Programs, Headquarters United States Air Force and was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. This work was carried out under a fiscal year 2005 project, “The USAF’s Role in the Future Middle East,” and updated in 2007. This work is part of the RAND Corporation’s ongoing research on Iran and the Middle East.

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.

Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site: http://www.rand.org/paf/

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