By Marcus Noland, the Institute for International Economics, January 2004

Today's North Korean regime embodies elements of both communism and Confucian dynasty, is sovereign with respect to only part of the divided Korean nation, is vulnerable to pressure from external powers, and confronts incipient internal demands for change, yielding an unusually broad set of possible transition paths and successor regimes. Such paths range from maintenance of the status quo to evolution, probably toward a more conventional form of military authoritarianism, to revolutionary upheaval, the latter in all likelihood implying the North's collapse and its absorption into the rival Southern state.

This policy analysis quantitatively analyzes the probability of regime change and examines the character of possible successor regimes and the implications of these profoundly different trajectories for South Korea.

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Book Contents:

Preface

Acknowledgments

1. Political Change in North Korea 115.8KB

2. Modeling Regime Change 146.0KB

3. Transition Paths 139.4KB

4. Implications for South Korea 99.5KB

Data Appendix 56.3KB

References

Index 

About the Author:

Marcus Noland is a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics. He has been the Senior Economist for International Economics at the Council of Economic Advisers, as well as a visiting professor at Johns Hopkins University, the University of Southern California, Tokyo University, Saitama University, the University of Ghana, and a visiting scholar at the Korea Development Institute. He has written many articles on international economics and is the author of Avoiding the Apocalypse: The Future of the Two Koreas (2000) and Pacific Basin Developing Countries: Prospects for the Future (1990). He is coauthor of Global Economic Effects of the Asian Currency Devaluations (1998), Reconcilable Differences? United States–Japan Economic Conflict with C. Fred Bergsten (1993), Japan in the World Economy with Bela Balassa (1988), the editor of Industrial Policy in an Era of Globalization (2003), Economic Integration of the Korean Peninsula (1998), and coeditor of ! Pacific Dynamism and the International Economic System (1993).

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