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 Preface: The Los Angeles (L.A.) region, according to many studies, has the most severe traffic congestion in the United States. Longer-term trends in many of the underlying causal factors—including growth in the population, the economy, and the movement of goods through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—suggest that congestion will continue to worsen in the coming years, absent significant policy intervention.
Excessive traffic congestion detracts from quality of life, is economically wasteful, is environmentally damaging, and exacerbates socialjustice concerns. Finding efficient and equitable strategies for mitigating congestion will therefore serve many social goals.
The primary intent of this study was to recommend strategies for reducing congestion in L.A. County that could be implemented and produce significant improvements in a short time, defined as roughly five years or less.
Specific elements of the study include the following:
- reviewing the academic literature for insights on congestion
- examining available data to characterize traffic congestion in Los Angeles, including current conditions and recent trends
- examining relevant transportation and land-use features in Los Angeles to diagnose the key contributors to congestion in the region
- identifying the range of available congestion-reduction strategies that could be implemented and produce effects in the near term
- assessing the strengths and weaknesses of each option with regard to cost/revenue implications, short- and longer-term effectiveness in reducing congestion, effects on other social goals, likely implementation obstacles, and the current level of implementation in Los Angeles
- recommending a smaller set of strategies that offers the greatest prospects for reducing congestion and improving transportation options in Los Angeles
- considering complementary strategies for building political consensus around effective, albeit potentially controversial, congestion-reduction measures. ...
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By: Paul Sorensen, Martin Wachs, Endy Y. Min, Aaron Kofner, Liisa Ecola, Mark Hanson, Allison Yoh, Thomas Light, James Griffin
© Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation
Sponsored by James A. Thomas, the L.A. County Metropolitan Transportation Authority, the Music Center of Los Angeles County, and the RAND Corporation
Transportation, Space, and Technology
A RAND INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world.
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xv
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixxv
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ixxvii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Motivation for This Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
Our Approach . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Developing a Conceptual Understanding of Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Characterizing Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
Diagnosing Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Identifying Potential Congestion-Reduction Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Assessing Potential Congestion-Reduction Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Developing Congestion-Reduction Recommendations for Los
Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Developing Complementary Consensus-Building Recommendations . . . . 9
Organization of This Book . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
CHAPTER TWO
A Primer on Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Congestion Is a Long-Standing Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Absent Intervention, Congestion Will Likely Worsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Travel Demand Continues to Rise . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Truck Travel Is Rising Even More Rapidly . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Significant Road Expansion Is Unlikely . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Confronting Congestion Is a Challenging Proposition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Driving Is Not an Irrational Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Congestion Is a By-Product of Convenient Scheduling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Commuting Is Just Part of the Problem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Nonrecurrent Congestion Is a Major Concern . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Congestion Is a Nonlinear Phenomenon . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
Congestion Grows in Space and Time . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Congestion Solves a More Fundamental Problem . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
There Are No Silver-Bullet Solutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Many Strategies Fail to Achieve Longer-Term Reductions in Peak-
Hour Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Only Pricing Strategies Lead to Sustainable Congestion Reductions . . . 28
Pricing Strategies Can Enable More Travel During Peak Hours . . . . . . . . . . 29
How Transportation Is Financed Influences Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Increasing Population Density Argues for Alternative Travel Modes . . . . . 31
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
CHAPTER THREE
Characterizing Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Congestion in Los Angeles Could Be Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Los Angeles Leads the Nation in Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Congestion in Los Angeles Continues to Worsen . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Congestion on the Highways Is Severe Throughout Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . 40
The Arterial System Appears Especially Congested on the Westside . . . . . . 48
Truck Flows Are Concentrated in Certain Areas and Corridors . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
CHAPTER FOUR
Diagnosing Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
Inadequate Explanations for the Severity of Congestion in Los
Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54
Urban Form in Los Angeles Is Both Dense and Polycentric . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Greater Population Density Leads to Greater Traffic Congestion . . . . . . . . . . 63
Polycentricity May Reinforce Auto Dependency, Compounding
Congestion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
Interacting Land-Use and Transportation Patterns Result in Severe
Traffic Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Significant Freight Traffic Also Contributes to the Severity of
Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77
CHAPTER FIVE
Short-Term Congestion-Reduction Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79
Identifying Short-Term Congestion-Reduction Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Strategies Selected for Evaluation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
Transportation System Management Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
Transportation Demand Management Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Alternative Transportation Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Congestion-Reduction Strategies in Other Major Cities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Strengths and Limitations of Individual Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Strategy-Assessment Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91
Strategy-Assessment Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
CHAPTER SIX
Short-Term Congestion-Reduction Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Approach for Developing Strategy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Developing an Integrated Policy Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
Key Observations on Congestion in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Integrated Policy Objectives for Los Angeles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Selecting Strategies to Support the Integrated Policy Framework . . . . . . . . . 109
Strategy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Primary Strategy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Contingent Strategy Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Public-Sector Roles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Strategies Not Recommended . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140
Increasing Travel Speed and Reducing Delays on the Road
Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
Making Alternative Transportation More Attractive and
Convenient . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Raising Needed Transportation Revenue . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Key Dependencies and Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
CHAPTER SEVEN
Consensus-Building Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
The Complexity of Transportation Decisionmaking in Los Angeles . . . . . 148
Public-Sector Actors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
Nongovernmental Stakeholder Groups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Implications for Transportation Decisionmaking in Los Angeles . . . . . . 152
Theoretical Insights on Consensus-Building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Recommendations to Foster Consensus-Building in Los Angeles . . . . . . . . 154
General Recommendations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
Recommendations That Apply to Specific Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160
CHAPTER EIGHT
Final Thoughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Integrating Short-Term and Longer-Term Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Transportation in an Energy- and Climate-Constrained World . . . . . . . . . . 165
The Debate Over Congestion-Reduction Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169
The Challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
The Opportunities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
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