Navigating the Taiwan Strait: Deterrance, Escalation Dominance, and U.S.-China

  By Robert S. Ross

  International Security  27, no. 2 (Fall 2002): 48-85.

  Robert Ross of Boston College considers the prospects for a U.S.-China war over Taiwan. Ross praises the first Bush administration and the Clinton administration for maintaining the U.S. commitment to protect Taiwan from a potential Chinese invasion while furthering U.S. engagement with the mainland.

In contrast, he criticizes the current Bush administration’s policy of constructing “a U.S.-Taiwan defense relationship focused on wartime cooperation.” The administration’s decision to increase U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and to consider selling missile defense technologies to Taiwan unnecessarily challenges Chinese security interests in the Taiwan Strait and increases the likelihood of conflict. Instead, Ross asserts that as long as Taiwan does not declare independence from China, the United States can be confident that it can continue to deter the Chinese use of force against Taiwan for decades to come.

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