"The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable—to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security.

We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.

We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately."

This public report, prepared by GBN for the Department of Defense, has been the subject of several news stories. Fortune magazine excerpted the report in its Feb. 9, 2004, issue ("The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare," by David Stipp). The actual report, titled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," was written by Peter Schwartz (GBN chairman) and Doug Randall (co-head of GBN's consulting practice) and is attached here in its PDF version. Contrary to some recent media coverage, the report was not secret, suppressed, or predictive.