Since 2000, black enlistments into the Army have fallen precipitously. The number of black high-quality enlistments fell from 80 per 100,000 individuals in the U.S. population in July 2000 to 32 per 100,000 in July 2005. Although black high-quality enlistments have increased since 2005, they are still well below the 2000 level.

Not only the number but also the percentage of recruits that are black has fallen in the Army. Black representation among high-quality Army recruits fell from 18.9 percent in 2000 to 10.6 percent in 2004, increasing to 11.8 percent in 2007. In contrast, black representation among highquality Navy recruits over the same period has been generally stable.

The decline in black representation among high-quality Army enlistments is of concern because black youth are a key market segment for the Army, and the success of Army recruiting in the past is partially due to the ability of the Army to attract black youth into the military.

Army recruiting has been challenging in recent years, and understanding why black enlistments have declined among high-quality Army enlistments is likely to be a component of the Army’s strategy to meet its recruiting challenges. In addition, diversity of enlistments has been an area of concern among policymakers since the end of conscription in the United States in 1973: In that year, Congress mandated that the Department of Defense report the diversity of the armed forces annually.

In contrast to black enlistments, Hispanic representation among high-quality enlistments has increased since 2000 in both the Army and the Navy. The Hispanic share of high-quality enlistments increased from 7.0 to 9.7 percent in the Army between 1999 and 2007, and from 9.6 to 15.4 percent in the Navy. For the Army, the key period of increase was between 2000 and 2003, when the Hispanic share increased by 3.3 percentage points, from 8.0 to 11.3. From 2003 to 2007, the Hispanic share fell to 9.7 percent.

For the Navy, the key period of increase was between 2002 and 2005, when the Hispanic share rose from 10.9 to 16.2, or 5.3 percentage points. The disparate trends for Hispanic compared with black enlistments in the Army and Navy suggest that these market segments’ enlistment decisions respond to different factors. That is, different market segments vary in their responses to resources, external opportunities, and other factors. ...

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Beth J. Asch, Paul Heaton, Bogdan Savych
Prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense
NATIONAL DEFENSE RESEARCH INSTITUTE

CONTENTS
Chapter One:Introduction
Chapter Two: Background on Recruiting
Chapter Three: Methodology and Data
Chapter Four: Army Results
Chapter Five: Navy Results
Chapter Six: Conclusions and Policy Implications

PREFACE
Since 2000, black enlistments have declined in the Army, as has the black share of high-quality Army enlistments. A recruit is deemed high-quality if he or she has a high school diploma and scores above average on the Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT). The decline in black enlistments is of concern to policymakers because the Army has struggled to meet its recruiting mission in recent years, and a significant decline in a key market segment represents a potential area for improvement.

Furthermore, since the start of the all-volunteer force, Congress has been concerned about the degree to which military enlistments proportionately reflect the population that the U.S. military defends. At the same time that black representation among high-quality Army recruits has declined, Hispanic representation has increased. In addition, in comparison with the Army, black representation in the Navy has been stable, and Hispanic representation among high-quality Navy recruits has increased.

This report identifies factors that are correlated with trends in black and Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits in the Army and Navy, and it considers which policies are likely to be most effective in increasing high-quality enlistments among black, Hispanic, and white youth. The report also provides information on the relative cost-effectiveness of different resources among each market segment. The report should be of interest to policymakers concerned about military recruiting, and minority representation specifically, as well as defense manpower researchers.

This research was sponsored by the Office of Accession Policy within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness and conducted within the Forces and Resource Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

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