As Russia's economy has grown, so have the country's global involvement and influence, which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes, as the August 2008 conflict in Georgia demonstrated. Despite the two countries' many disagreements and the rising tension between them, the United States and Russia share some key interests and goals.

In this monograph, the authors assess Russia's strategic interests and the factors that influence Russian foreign policy broadly. They examine Russia's domestic policies, economic development, and views of the world, as well as how these translate into security policies at home and abroad. They then consider the implications of Russia's evolving approaches for U.S. interests.

The authors find that Russia's rising confidence will continue to create challenges for U.S. policymakers. The U.S. goal must therefore be to improve relations with Russia and build on shared views and shared interests, rather than to pursue coercive mechanisms that can easily backfire. Among other steps, the authors recommend that Washington

If Russo-U.S. relations do not improve, the United States must find ways to keep poor relations with Russia from turning into adversarial ones. The Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force have important roles to play in either scenario.

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by Olga Oliker, Keith Crane, Lowell H. Schwartz, Catherine Yusupov
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Published 2009 by the RAND Corporation
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SUMMARY
To any time-traveling student of the Soviet Union or any Russia watcher of the 1990s, today’s Russia would be unrecognizable. The Russia that has reemerged as a foreign policy challenge for the United States today is significantly different from the Russia of the recent past—it is wealthier, more stable, increasingly less democratic, and more assertive globally.

If U.S. policymakers hope to work with Russia on key foreign and security policy goals, they must be aware of how these goals do or do not align with Russia’s own interests. If they would like to see closer alignment between Russia’s choices and U.S. priorities, they need to understand the basis of Moscow’s foreign and security policy decisions, how Russian foreign policy goals may evolve, and how decisions are made in Russia.

If they hope to influence Russian policies, whether through sticks or through carrots, they must know what Russian responses to such incentives will be. This knowledge can help explain where cooperation is and is not possible and where moreconfrontational postures may or may not be of value.

This monograph analyzes the domestic and economic sources of Russian foreign and security policies. It then fleshes out Russian foreign and security policy interests, goals, and approaches. It concludes with an assessment of how Russia’s foreign and security policies and capabilities may affect the United States and the U.S. Air Force. ...

INTRODUCTION
A New Russia
To any time-traveling student of the Soviet Union or Russia watcher of the 1990s, today’s Russia would be unrecognizable. The Russia that has emerged today as a foreign policy challenge for the United States is significantly different from the Russia of recent decades. Stunning economic growth since the ruble crisis of 1998 has translated into extraordinary increases in personal incomes and consumption.

Average per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Russia has grown from $1,312 in 1999 to $8,842 in 2007. Despite the worries driven by the economic downturn that became evident in late 2008, there is every reason to believe that even with a much lower price of oil, Russian growth will, for the most part, recover and continue.

As Russia has grown wealthier over the last decade, it has also become progressively less democratic. Elections and politics have become increasingly managed. The authorities have been tightening constraints on free speech and assembly. Public opinion surveys suggest that most Russians see their increasingly autocratic government as having delivered stability and growth. They support that government and are increasingly proud of their country. ...

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