Russia's Decline and Uncertain Recovery

    By Thomas Graham, Jr.

    Carnegie Endowment for International Peace , 2002

     The precipitous decline of Russian power and influence in the world may stand as the most significant development for international relations of the last quarter of the 20th century. Never in modern history has a great power fallen so far so fast during peacetime. 

This decline initially brought the four-decades-long Cold War to a hasty, unexpected conclusion, and subsequently the Russian state and people have experienced a traumatic decade of chaos and widespread impoverishment that can be compared with the Time of Troubles at the turn of the 17th century or the Bolshevik Revolution and ensuing civil war in the early 20th century.

In this monograph, Thomas E. Graham, Jr., clearly and succinctly analyzes the sources of Russia's decline during the Soviet period and the dangerous fragmentation and erosion of state power in Russia during the 1990s. In finding roots in Russian history for the oligarchic regime of the Yeltsin years and the increasingly authoritarian characteristics of the Putin regime, he challenges the appropriateness of the transition paradigm for what has emerged in Russia during the past ten years. According to Graham, whether Russia will achieve sustainable economic growth, political stability, and renewed international influence remains an open question.

About the Author
Thomas E. Graham, Jr. is associate director of the Policy Planning Staff at the Department of State. He was previously a senior associate in the Russian and Eurasian Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he undertook a two-year project on the fragmentation of Russia that resulted in this monograph.

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