This Special Report examines the modernization program of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The essayists conclude that while this program bears watching, the U.S. military, assuming it too continues to modernize, will be able to maintain its lead in overall capability.

Litai Xue of Stanford University emphasizes communist party control of the military, and describes a case study in 1969 where the country went on full nuclear alert—without much organizational control.

Bernard D. Cole of the National War College states the primary concern of the Chinese navy is Taiwan, but downplays the idea that China intends to compete with the U.S. navy to defend sea lines of communication.

Dennis J. Blasko, U.S. Army (ret.), points out that Chinese military planners themselves say the modernization process for the army will not be completed until 2020.

Kristen A. Gunness of the CNA Corporation describes the problems that civil society in China is creating for the military, noting, for example, that as Chinese society becomes “grayer,” this puts more pressure on the military budget to pay for a growing number of retirees.

Introduction
Mark Mohr

For example, the Department of Defense, in this year’s Quadrennial Defense Review Report, states: “Of the emerging powers, China has the greatest potential to compete militarily with the United States and field disruptive military technologies that could over time offset traditional U.S. military advantages absent U.S. counter strategies.”

The essays that follow, originally presented at a symposium at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, analyze China’s military modernization program, especially over the last decade, and seek to draw conclusions about the degree to which the United States should be worried about China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

The first essay, by Litai Xue, research associate at the Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, makes the point that the PLA is under the control of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and that this is true for strategic (nuclear) forces as well. In times of peace, it is the Politburo (33 members) and its Standing Committee (9 members) which are in overall charge of the work of the entire political-military system in China.

The reality is that the Standing Committee acts as the ultimate national authority. Once war is declared, however, the burden of command authority passes to the Party’s Central Military Commission, which is dominated by senior PLA officers. Thus, there is tight Party control over the military. ...

Download The Chinese People’s Liberation Army: Should the United States Be Worried?

PDF format, 4.15MB, 32Pages.

Litai Xue “China’s People’s Liberation Army: Party Control and Military Decision Making” Page 5

Bernard D. Cole “China’s Growing Maritime Power: Implications for the United States” Page 12

Dennis J. Blasko “PLA Ground Forces: The View from Beijing … or Heilongjiang … or Xinjiang” Page 17

Kristen A. Gunness “China’s New Civil-Military Dynamic: Challenges and Opportunities for PLA Modernization” Page 25

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars

Lee H. Hamilton, President and Director
Board of Trustees
Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; Allen Weinstein, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Margaret Spellings, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Condoleezza Rice, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Michael O. Leavitt, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. Designated Appointee of the President from within the Federal Government: Tamala L. Longaberger. Private Citizen Members: Carol Cartwright, Robin Cook, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Sander Gerber, Charles L. Glazer, Ignacio E. Sanchez

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