In August 2007, a Russian adventurer descended 4,300 meters under the thinning ice of the North Pole to plant a titanium flag, claiming some 1.2 million square kilometers of the Arctic for mother Russia. Not to be outdone, the Prime Minister of Canada stated his intention to boost his nation’s military presence in the Arctic, with the stakes raised by the recent discovery that the icy Northwest Passage has become navigable for the first time in recorded history.

Across the globe, the spreading desertification in the Darfur region has been compounding the tensions between nomadic herders and agrarian farmers, providing the environmental backdrop for genocide.

In Bangladesh, one of the most densely populated countries in the world, the risk of coastal flooding is growing and could leave some 30 million people searching for higher ground in a nation already plagued by political violence and a growing trend toward Islamist extremism. Neighboring India is already building a wall along its border with Bangladesh.

More hopefully, the award of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize to Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a clear recognition that global warming poses not only environmental hazards but profound risks to planetary peace and stability as well.

We already live in an “age of consequences,” one that will increasingly be defined by the intersection of climate change and the security of nations. For the past year a diverse group of experts, under the direction and leadership of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Center for a New American Security (CNAS), met regularly to start a new conversation to consider the potential future foreign policy and national security implications of climate change.

The group consisted of nationally recognized leaders in the fields of climate science, foreign policy, political science, oceanography, history, and national security, including Nobel Laureate Thomas Schelling, Pew Center Senior Scientist Jay Gulledge, National Academy of Sciences President Ralph Cicerone, American Meteorological Society Fellow Bob Correll, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute Senior Scientist Terrence Joyce and former Vice President Richard Pittenger, Climate Institute Chief Scientist Mike MacCracken, Georgetown University Professor John McNeill, former CIA Director James Woolsey, former Chief of Staff to the President John Podesta, and former National Security Advisor to the Vice President Leon Fuerth. Our eclectic group occasionally struggled to “speak the same language,” but a shared sense of purpose helped us develop a common vocabulary and mutual respect.

The mandate of the exercise was, on its face, very straightforward: employ the best available evidence and climate models, and imagine three future worlds that fall within the range of scientific plausibility.

As climate scientist Jay Gulledge explains in Chapter II, projections about the effects of climate change have tended to focus on the most probable outcome based on mathematical modeling of what we know about the global climate.

With climate science, however, the level of uncertainty has always been very high. Indeed, the scientific community has been shocked at how fast some effects of global warming are unfolding,2 which suggests that many of the estimates considered most probable have been too conservative. When building climate scenarios in order to anticipate the future, therefore, there is a very strong case for looking at the full range of what is plausible.

Such scenario planning is more than a creative writing exercise; it is a tool used successfully by businesses and governments all over the world to anticipate future events and plan more wisely in the present. These particular scenarios aim not to speculate centuries into the future, as some scientific models do, but to consider possible developments using a reasonable timeframe for making acquisition decisions or judgments about larger geopolitical trends. In national security planning, it generally can take about 30 years to design a weapons system and bring it to the battlefield, so it is important to anticipate future threat environments. It is no less important to anticipate and prepare for the challenges we may face in the
future as a result of climate change. ...

Download The Age of Consequences: The Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change

PDF format, 2.1MB, 124Pages.

By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta, Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. Lennon, Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
November 2007.

About the Authors:

Kurt M. Campbell is CEO and co-founder of the Center for a New American Security and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific.

Leon Fuerth is a research professor of international affairs at The George Washington University, and former national security advisor to Vice President Al Gore.

Jay Gulledge, Ph.D., is the senior scientist and program manager for science and impacts at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change.

Alexander T. J. Lennon is the editor-in-chief of CSIS’s flagship journal, The Washington Quarterly.

J.R. McNeill is a professor of history at Georgetown University.

Derek Mix is a research associate in the CSIS Europe Program.

Peter Ogden is senior national security analyst at the Center for American Progress.

John Podesta is president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and former chief of staff for President Bill Clinton.

Julianne Smith is the director of the CSIS Europe Program and the Initiative for a Renewed Transatlantic Partnership.

Richard Weitz is a senior fellow and director of program management at Hudson Institute.

R. James Woolsey is a vice president for Booz Allen Hamilton and former director of the CIA.

Tabl e of Contents:

Executive Summary 5
Introduction: The Methodological Approach of 13
this Study and Previous Research on the
Impacts of Climate Change
I. Can History Help Us with Global Warming? 23
II. Three Plausible Scenarios of Future Climate Change 35
III. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 1: 55
Expected Climate Change Over Next 30 Years
IV. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 2: 71
Severe Climate Change Over Next 30 Years
By Kurt M. Campbell, Jay Gulledge, J.R. McNeill, John Podesta,
Peter Ogden, Leon Fuerth, R. James Woolsey, Alexander T.J. Lennon,
Julianne Smith, Richard Weitz, and Derek Mix
V. Security Implications of Climate Scenario 3: 81
Catastrophic Climate Change Over Next 100 Years
VI. Setting the Negotiating Table: 93
The Race to Replace Kyoto by 2012
Conclusion: Summary and Implications of 103
Global Climate Change
Endnotes 111

About the Center for Strategic & International Studies:

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) seeks to advance global security and prosperity in an era of economic and political transformation by providing strategic insights and practical policy solutions to decisionmakers.

CSIS serves as a strategic planning partner for the government by conducting research and analysis and developing policy initiatives that look into the future and anticipate change.

Founded in 1962 by David M. Abshire and Admiral Arleigh Burke, CSIS is a bipartisan, nonprofit organization headquartered in Washington, DC, with more than 220 full-time staff and a large network of affiliated experts. Former U.S. senator Sam Nunn became chairman of the CSIS Board of Trustees in 1999, and John J. Hamre has led CSIS as its president and chief executive officer since April 2000. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views expressed herein should be understood to be solely those of the authors.

© 2007 Center for Strategic & International Studies.
Center for Strategic & International Studies
1800 K St. NW
Suite 400
Washington, DC 20006
Tel 202.887.0200
Fax 202.775.3199
www.csis.org

About the Center for a New American Security:

The mission of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) is to develop strong, pragmatic, and principled national security and defense policies that promote and protect American interests and values. Building on the expertise and experience of its staff and advisors, CNAS aims to engage policymakers, experts and the public with innovative fact-based research, ideas, and analysis to shape and elevate the national security debate. A key part of our mission is to help inform and prepare the national security leaders of today and tomorrow.

CNAS is led by co-founders Dr. Kurt Campbell, CEO, and Michèle Flournoy, President. The Center is located in Washington, DC, and was established in February 2007. CNAS is a 501c3 tax-exempt nonprofit organization. Its research is nonpartisan; CNAS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the authors.

© 2007 Center for a New American Security.

Center for a New American Security
1301 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
Suite 403
Washington, DC 20004
TEL 202.457.9400
FAX 202.457.9401
EMAIL info@cnas.org
www.cnas.org

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