How susceptible are satellites to interference? How easily can they be disabled or destroyed? What measures can be taken to reduce their vulnerability? What are the likely costs and available alternatives to various space weapons proposals?

The answers to these questions depend on physical laws and technical details that are not widely understood outside of a segment of the science and engineering community. At the request of the Academy’s “Rules of Space” project, David Wright, Laura Grego, and Lisbeth Gronlund (Union of Concerned Scientists) prepared a reference manual that makes accessible the necessary facts upon which an informed evaluation of space policy choices can take place.

The paper describes the mechanics of satellite orbits and explains why certain operations are suited to particular orbits. It discusses the requirements for launching satellites into space and maneuvering them once in space. It considers the consequences of the space environment for basing certain military missions there. Finally, it describes the elements of a satellite system and assesses the vulnerability of these components to various types of interference or destruction. It also includes an analysis of technical measures for reducing satellite vulnerability.

The paper provides a foundation for the formulation of sound, science-based policy. It also includes detailed appendices.

Download The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual

PDF format, 8.5MB, 183Pages.

Preface:

Over the past decade or so, societies around the world have relied increasingly on satellites for vital communication services, environmental monitoring, navigation, weather prediction, and scientific research. This largely beneficial trend is expected to intensify: more countries are developing satellite technology and using the services derived from it.

The same technologies have made possible the development of military capabilities in space that go far beyond those employed during the Cold War for intelligence gathering early warning. Some in the United States see space as a critical enabler for bringing decisive military force to bear anywhere on Earth with little or no warning. This rapid strike capability is a central element of the post-9/11 national security strategy, which seeks not only to deter or defeat any potential aggressor but also to prevent the acquisition of threatening capabilities by hostile states or terrorist groups. Protecting and enhancing U.S. military capability in space is emerging as an important focus of military planning.

Recent official documents have proposed, for example, various anti-satellite and space-based weapons to protect and augment U.S. capabilities in space.

These new missions are controversial in the view of close U.S. allies and are likely to be contested by others if pursued. Serious public discussion of military space plans has not yet occurred in the United States, though important questions of policy, planning and budgeting loom: What missions are best carried out from space? What are the likely costs and available alternatives to various space weapons proposals? How susceptible are satellites to interference? How easily can they be disabled or destroyed? What measures can be taken to reduce their vulnerability?

The answers to these questions depend on physical laws and technical facts that are not widely understood outside of a rather narrow slice of the science and engineering community. The paper that follows makes accessible to a general audience the necessary facts upon which an informed evaluation of space policy choices can take place.

The authors, physicists David Wright, Laura Grego, and Lisbeth Gronlund, describe the mechanics of satellite orbits and explain why certain operations are suited to particular orbits. They discuss the requirements for launching satellites into space and maneuvering them once in space. They consider the consequences of the space environment for basing certain military missions there. Finally, they describe the elements of a satellite system and assess the vulnerability of these components to various types of interference or destruction. They also include an analysis of technical measures for reducing satellite vulnerability.

The paper makes no attempt to provide policy recommendations. Although the authors’ views on space weapons and missile defense are well known to those who follow these issues, they are not asserted here. Instead, the intent is to provide a neutral reference. Those engaged in the policy process, no matter what their views, should find this work useful.

This paper is part of the American Academy’s “Reconsidering the Rules of Space” project. The study examines the implications of U.S. policy in space from a variety of perspectives, and considers the international rules and principles needed for protecting a long-term balance of commercial, military, and scientific activities in space. The project is producing a series of papers, intended to help inform public discussion of legitimate uses of space, and induce a further examination of U.S. official plans and policies in space. Forthcoming papers will consider the interaction of military, scientific, and commercial activities in space; Chinese and Russian perspectives on U.S. space plans; and the possible elements of a more comprehensive space security system.

The authors presented parts of the paper at a workshop convened by the American Academy and its Committee on International Security Studies in December 2003. Participating were Bruce Blair, Steve Fetter, Nancy Gallagher, Richard Garwin, Subrata Ghoshroy, Joan Johnson-Freese, Carl Kaysen, George Lewis, Martin Malin, Jonathan McDowell, Norman Neureiter, Pavel Podvig, Theodore Postol, John Rhinelander, John Steinbruner, Eugene Skolnikoff, Larry S. Walker, and Hui Zhang. We thank the participants for their insights at the workshop.

We also thank Richard Garwin, George Lewis, and two anonymous reviewers for their comments on the paper. We join the authors in thanking Steve Fetter, Richard Garwin, George Lewis, Pavel Podvig, and Wang Ting for providing additional comments. And we join them in acknowledging Helen Curry, Phyllis Bendell, Andrea Grego, and Anita Spiess for their efforts in producing this report. We are grateful to the authors for their work on the paper and to the Union of Concerned Scientists for providing the authors with the time and space to carry out their work.

The Rules of Space project at the American Academy is supported by a generous grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. We thank the Carnegie Corporation for its support and Patricia Nicholas for her assistance.

John Steinbruner, University of Maryland
Carl Kaysen, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Martin Malin American Academy of Arts and Sciences

The Physics of Space Security: A Reference Manual Download Website

Contributors: 

Laura Grego is a Staff Scientist in the Global Security Program at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Before joining UCS, she was a researcher at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. She received her Ph.D. in physics from the California Institute of Technology in 1999.

Lisbeth Gronlund is Co-Director and Senior Scientist in the Global Security Program at UCS and a Research Scientist in the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Previously, she was an SSRC-MacArthur Foundation Fellow in International Peace and Security at the Center for International Security Studies at the University of Maryland and a postdoctoral fellow at the MIT Defense and Arms Control Studies Program. She is a fellow of the American Physical Society and was a co-recipient of their Joseph A. Burton Forum Award in 2001. Gronlund received her Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University in 1989.

David Wright is Co-Director and Senior Scientist in the Global Security Program at UCS and a Research Scientist in the Security Studies Program at MIT. Prior to coming to UCS, he was an SSRC-MacArthur Foundation Fellow in International Peace and Security at the Center for Science and International Affairs in the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and a Senior Analyst at the Federation of American Scientists. He is a fellow of the American Physical Society and was co-recipient of their Joseph A. Burton Forum Award in 2001. Wright received his Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University in 1983, and worked as a research physicist for five years before beginning full-time work on security issues.

The American Academy of Arts and Sciences:

Founded in 1780, the American Academy of Arts and Sciences is an international learned society composed of the world’s leading scientists, scholars, artists, business people, and public leaders.

With a current membership of 4,000 American Fellows and 600 Foreign Honorary Members, the Academy has four major goals:

• Promoting service and study through analysis of critical social and intellectual issues and the development of practical policy alternatives;
• Fostering public engagement and the exchange of ideas with meetings, conferences, and symposia bringing diverse perspectives to the examination of issues of common concern;
• Mentoring a new generation of scholars and thinkers through the newly established Visiting Scholars Program;
• Honoring excellence by electing to membership men and women in a broad range of disciplines and professions.

The Academy’s main headquarters are in Cambridge, Massachusetts. With its geographically diverse membership, it has also established regional centers at the University of Chicago and at the University of California, Irvine, and conducts activities in this country and abroad.

Program on Science and Global Security:

The Academy’s Program on Science and Global Security plans and sponsors multidisciplinary studies of current and emerging challenges to global peace and security.

Recent and ongoing projects investigate: Internet security, the governance of outer space, international security relationships in the region of the former Soviet Union, the costs and consequences of the war in Iraq, and the implications of the International Criminal Court for U.S. national security.

For more information on the Program on Science and Global Security, visit our website: http://www.amacad.org/projects/science.aspx.

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