China has been embarked on a process of reform and modernization that has led to unprecedented economic development. The goal is to make China a developed country, which would, among other things, raise the standard of living and prepare the base for a strong military.

The Chinese leadership considers good relations with the United States to be strongly advisable, if not absolutely necessary, but sovereignty concerns (especially with regard to Taiwan) could cause tensions in the Sino-U.S. relationship. China could emerge, by 2015, as a formidable power, one that might offer an alternative to the current U.S. role as the region's preferred security partner and its ultimate security manager.

At present, the best U.S. response appears to be a combination of engagement and containment, a congagement policy that would continue to try to bring China into the current international system while both preparing for a possible Chinese challenge to it and seeking to convince the Chinese leadership that a challenge would be difficult and extremely risky to pursue.

This summary draws heavily on the other work conducted in the course of the study. The results of some of this work have been, or will soon be, published in other RAND documents. This project is being conducted in the Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project MR FORCE under the sponsorship of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (AF/XO) and the Commander, Pacific Air Forces (PACAF/CC).

This report should be of interest to members of the national security community and to interested members of the general public. Comments are welcomed and may be addressed to the project leader, Dr. Zalmay Khalilzad.

Download The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications

PDF format, 4.9MB, 139Pages.

By: Zalmay Khalilzad, Abram N. Shulsky, Daniel Byman, Roger Cliff, David T. Orletsky, David A. Shlapak, Ashley J. Tellis

SUMMARY

Since 1978, China has been embarked on a fundamental process of reform and modernization that has resulted in an unprecedented rate of economic development. Some analysts predict that this will enable China's gross national product to overtake that of the United States in the early part of the next century. Although China currently lags far behind the United States militarily and technologically, a robust Chinese economy will likely be capable of underwriting rapid and dramatic improvements in these areas as well.

This report discusses the major issues China's modernization raises for the United States. It looks at how China is likely to behave in world affairs and the challenges that behavior may pose, what strat­ egy the United States should follow to deal with those challenges, and how the China factor should inform U.S. political-military activ­ ities in the East Asian region. ...

The United States and a Rising China: Strategic and Military Implications RAND Website

An analysis of the rising of China and its implications for the USA. The book suggests that, at present, the best US response appears to be a combination of engagement and containment, a "congagement" policy that would continue to try to bring China into the international system.

RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.

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