By William R. Cline, Institute for International Economics, September 2005

 "The most thorough and up-to-date look at the issue." --Clive Crook, The National Journal

The United States has once again entered into a period of large external imbalances. This time the current account deficit, at nearly 6 percent of GDP in 2004, is much larger than in the last episode, when the deficit peaked at about 3.5 percent of GDP in 1987. Moreover, the deficit is on track to become substantially larger over the next several years. This study examines whether the large and growing current account deficit is a problem, and if so, how the problem can be solved. A central policy conclusion of this study is that it is increasingly important that the United States reduce its external current account deficit. This deficit is no longer benign as it arguably was in the late 1990s when it was financing high investment instead of high consumption and large government dissaving.

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Book Contents (Divided PDFs, Downloadable):

Preface

Acknowledgments

Overview

1. The International Debt Cycle and the United States as an External Debtor

2. Valuation Effects, Asymmetric Returns, and Economic Net Foreign Assets

3. Projecting the US Current Account Deficit and Net Foreign Assets

4. US Fiscal Imbalance and the External Deficit

5. Sustainability of the US Current Account Deficit and the Risk of Crisis

6. Impact of the US External Imbalance on the Rest of the World

7. Principal Findings and Policy Implications

References

Index

Book Reviews:

"The most thorough and up-to-date look at the issue. . . It is to be hoped that someone with influence in Washington is paying attention."

Clive Crook in The National Journal

“. . . a splendid book that synthesizes all the core issues . . . It is an unusually thorough and thoughtful piece of policy analysis, and it will enjoy wide circulation and will become even more relevant as the problems it predicts emerge.”

Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard University, and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund

“. . . an extremely useful resource, not only for people seeking to learn about the US trade deficit and related external borrowing, but also for people who are familiar with these important issues and need an accessible reference.

Kristin Forbes, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and former member of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers

“. . . a very fine piece of work, clarifying any number of paradoxes and showing the reader how to work through the issues.”

Edward M. Gramlich, Richard Musgrave Professor, University of Michigan

About the Author:

William R. Cline is senior fellow jointly at the Institute for International Economics and the Center for Global Development in Washington, DC. During 1996-2001 while on leave from the Institute, Dr. Cline was deputy managing director and chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) in Washington, DC. The IIF conducts research on emerging-market economies for its membership of over 300 international banks, investment banks, asset management companies, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. He has been a senior fellow at the Institute for International Economics since its inception in 1981. Previously he was senior fellow, the Brookings Institution (1973-81); deputy director of development and trade research, office of the assistant secretary for international affairs, US Treasury Department (1971-73); Ford Foundation visiting professor in Brazil (1970-71); and lecturer and assistant professor of economics at Princeton University (1967-70). He graduated summa cum laude from Princeton University in 1963, and received his MA (1964) and Ph.D. (1969) in economics from Yale University. His publications include: The Economics of Global Warming, 1992; International Economic Policy in the 1990s, 1994; International Debt Reexamined, 1995; Predicting External Imbalances for the United States and Japan, 1995; Trade and Income Distribution, 1997; Trade Policy and Global Poverty, 2004; The United States as a Debtor Nation, 2005.

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