Since joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in 1952, Turkey has been an important security partner for the United States. However, Turkey’s strategic importance has changed significantly in U.S. eyes since the end of the Cold War.

During the Cold War, Turkey served as a barrier against the expansion of Soviet power into the Mediterranean and Middle East. Ankara tied down 24 Soviet divisions that otherwise could have been deployed against NATO forces on the Central Front. Turkey also provided important installations for monitoring and verifying Soviet compliance with arms-control agreements.

Many Turks feared that, with the end of the Cold War, Turkey would lose its strategic importance for the United States. These fears have proven unfounded. If anything, Turkey’s strategic importance has increased. Turkey today stands at the nexus of three areas of critical importance to the United States: the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the Middle East. In each of these areas, Turkish cooperation is essential for achieving U.S. policy goals.

However, in the last decade, Turkish policy has shown a new degree of independence and activism, particularly in the Middle East. At the same time, the U.S.–Turkish security partnership has come under new strains. On a number of issues, especially policy toward Iraq, Iran, and Syria, U.S. and Turkish interests have begun to diverge.

This has raised questions in some policy circles about how reliable a security partner Turkey will be in the future. This monograph focuses on Turkey’s role as a security partner for the United States. Chapter Two discusses changes in Turkey’s security environment and their implications for Turkish foreign policy. Chapter Three examines key security challenges Turkey faces, while Chapter Four analyzes Turkey’s most important security partnerships.

Chapter Five examines the costs and benefits of the U.S.–Turkish security partnership for both sides. Chapter Six assesses the implications of all this for the United States. (Introduction)

Visit Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner Download Page

F. STEPHEN LARRABEE
Prepared for the United States Air Force. © Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation

Chapter One:
Introduction

Chapter Two:
Turkey's Changing Security Environment

Chapter Three:
Security Challenges

Chapter Four:
Partnerships

Chapter Five:
Benefits and Costs

Chapter Six:
Implications for the United States

Download Turkey as a U.S. Security Partner

PDF format, 285KB, 50 Pages.

Preface:

Since the creation of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in 1949, America’s security partnership with Turkey has been a strategic asset that both parties value. Now, however, trends in the greater Middle East, in Turkish security policies, and within Turkish society itself appear to be eroding the commonality of interests that constitutes the foundation of that partnership. Left unchecked, these trends could diminish U.S. influence in Turkey and increase instability in the Middle East. This monograph explores the dynamics of the evolving U.S.–Turkish security relationship and their implications for U.S. foreign and security policies.

The research reported here was sponsored by the Director for Operational Plans and Joint Matters (AF/A5X), Headquarters United States Air Force. The work was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE as part of a fiscal year 2006 study “Risks and Rewards in U.S. Alliances.”

RAND Project AIR FORCE

RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Aerospace Force Development; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and Strategy and Doctrine.

Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site:
http://www.rand.org/paf/

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