World leaders have pledged to act to change the energy future. Some new policies are in place. But the trends in energy demand, imports, coal use and greenhouse gas emissions to 2030 in this year’s World Energy Outlook are even worse than projected in WEO 2006.

China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy. Their unprecedented pace of economic development will require ever more energy, but it will transform living standards for billions. There can be no question of asking them selectively to curb growth so as to solve problems which are global.

So how is the transition to be achieved to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system? WEO 2007 provides the answers. With extensive statistics, projections in three scenarios, analysis and advice, it shows China, India and the rest of the world why we need to co-operate to change the energy future and how to do it.

Download World Energy Outlook 2007 - China and India Insights (Executive Summary)

Executive Summary, PDF Format, 937KB, 18Pages.

Download World Energy Outlook 2007 - China and India Insights (Chinese)

Laguage: Chinese. PDF format, 6MB, 328Pages.

China and India are the emerging giants of the world economy and international energy markets.
Energy developments in China and India are transforming the global energy system by dint of their sheer size and their growing weight in international fossil-fuel trade. Similarly, both countries are increasingly exposed to changes in world energy markets. The staggering pace of Chinese and Indian economic growth in the past few years, outstripping that of all other major countries, has pushed up sharply their energy needs, a growing share of which has to be imported. The momentum of economic development looks set to keep their energy demand growing strongly.

As they become richer, the citizens of China and India are using more energy to run their offices and factories, and buying more electrical appliances and cars.

These developments are contributing to a big improvement in their quality of life, a legitimate aspiration that needs to be accommodated and supported by the rest of the world.

The consequences for China, India, the OECD and the rest of the world of unfettered growth in global energy demand are, however, alarming.
If governments around the world stick with current policies – the underlying premise of our Reference Scenario – the world’s energy needs would be well over 50% higher in 2030 than today. China and India together account for 45% of the increase in demand in this scenario.

Globally, fossil fuels continue to dominate the fuel mix. These trends lead to continued growth in energy-related emissions of carbon-dioxide (CO2) and to increased reliance of consuming countries on imports of oil and gas – much of them from the Middle East and Russia. Both developments would heighten concerns about climate change and energy security.

The challenge for all countries is to put in motion a transition to a more secure, lower-carbon energy system, without undermining economic and social development.
Nowhere will this challenge be tougher, or of greater importance to the rest of the world, than in China and India. Vigorous, immediate and collective policy action by all governments is essential to move the world onto a more sustainable energy path. There has so far been more talk than action in most countries. Were all the policies that governments around the world are considering today to be implemented, as we assume in an Alternative Policy Scenario, the world’s energy demand and related emissions would be reduced substantially.

Measures to improve energy efficiency stand out as the cheapest and fastest way to curb demand and emissions growth in the near term. But even in this scenario, CO2 emissions are still one-quarter above current levels in 2030. To achieve a much bigger reduction in emissions would require immediate policy action and technological transformation on an unprecedented scale.

Both the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenario projections are based on what some might consider conservative assumptions about economic growth in the two giants.
They envisage a progressive and marked slow-down in the rate of growth of output over the projection period. In a High Growth Scenario, which assumes that China’s and India’s economies grow on average 1.5 percentage points per year faster than in the Reference Scenario (though more slowly than of late), energy demand is 21% higher in 2030 in China and India combined.

The global increase in energy demand amounts to 6%, making it all the more urgent for governments around the world to implement policies, such as those taken into account in the Alternative Policy Scenario, to curb the growth in fossil-energy demand and related emissions. ...

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About the WEO:

The World Energy Outlook is the flagship publication of the International Energy Agency. It has long been recognised as the authoritative source of global long-term energy market analysis.

In even-numbered years, the series provides energy demand and supply projections by fuel and by region through to 2030. It draws lessons for energy security, trade and investment, quantifies energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and assesses policies designed to reduce them.

In odd-numbered years the series provides a systematic, objective and comprehensive analysis of a topical issue or challenge confronting the energy sector.

The WEO received numerous awards from governments and energy industry for its analytical excellence.

ABOUT INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an autonomous body which was established in November 1974 within the framework of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to implement an inter national energy programme.

It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among twenty-six of the OECD thirty member countries.

The basic aims of the IEA are:

• To maintain and improve systems for coping with oil supply disruptions.
• To promote rational energy policies in a global context through co-operative relations with non-member countries, industry and inter national organisations.
• To operate a permanent information system on the international oil market.
• To improve the world’s energy supply and demand structure by developing alternative energy sources and increasing the effi ciency of energy use.
• To promote international collaboration on energy technology.
• To assist in the integration of environmental and energy policies.

The IEA member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States. The Slovak Republic and Poland are likely to become member countries in 2007/2008. The European Commission also participates in the work of the IEA.

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