World Health Statistics 2008 presents the most recent health statistics for WHO’s 193 Member States. This fourth edition includes 10 highlights in health statistics, as well as an expanded set of over 70 key health indicators. The edition includes, for the first time, trend data where the statistics are available and of acceptable quality.

World Health Statistics 2008 has been collated from publications and databases produced by WHO’s technical programmes and regional offices as well as from publicly accessible databases. The core set of indicators was selected on the basis of relevance to global health monitoring and considerations of data availability, accuracy and comparability between Member States.

In estimating country indicators, regional offices and technical programmes apply peer-reviewed methods of estimation, consult with experts around the world, and engage in an interactive process with Member States. The goal of the exercise is to maximize accessibility, accuracy, comparability and transparency of health statistics.

INTRODUCTION:

World Health Statistics 2008 presents the most recent available health statistics for WHO’s 193 Member States.

This fourth edition includes 10 highlights of health statistics as well as data on an expanded set of over 70 key health indicators. The indicators were selected on the basis of their relevance to global health monitoring and considerations of data availability, accuracy and comparability among Member States.

This publication is in two parts. Part 1 presents 10 topical highlights based on recent publications or results of new analyses of existing data. Part 2 presents key health indicators in the form of six tables for all WHO Member States: mortality and burden of disease; health service coverage; risk factors; health systems resources; inequities in health care coverage and health outcome; and basic demographic and socioeconomic statistics. This edition includes, for the first time, data on trends where the statistics are available and of acceptable quality.

World Health Statistics 2008 has been collated from publications and databases produced by WHO’s technical programmes and regional offices, as well as from publicly accessible databases. The data on inequalities in health care coverage and health outcome are primarily derived from analyses of household surveys and are available only for a limited number of countries. It is anticipated that the number of countries reporting disaggregated data will increase during the next few years. Nevertheless, even in their current limited form, the data will be useful for the global public health community.

In estimating country indicators based on different data sources, regional offices and technical programmes apply peer-reviewed methods and consult with experts around the world. To maximize the accessibility, accuracy, comparability and transparency of health statistics, the technical programmes and regional offices also work closely with Member States through an interactive process of data collection, compilation, quality assessment and estimation.

All statistics presented in this publication have, unless otherwise stated, been cleared as WHO’s official figures in consultation with Member States. Nevertheless, the estimates published here should still be regarded as best estimates made by WHO rather than the official statistics of Member States, which may use alternative rigorous procedures.

More detailed information, including a compendium of statistics and an online version of this publication, is available from WHO’s Statistical Information System (http://www.who.int/statistics). This will be regularly updated as new data become available. The web site, which has now been revised with new features and a new look to better meet users’ needs, will allow data to be displayed in different formats such as tables, maps and graphs. It also provides, wherever possible, metadata describing the sources of data, estimation methods and quality assessment.

Careful scrutiny and use of the statistics presented in this report should contribute to progressively better measurement of relevant indicators of population health and health systems.

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Future trends in global mortality:
major shifts in cause of death patterns

The original Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study was published in 1991 to provide a comprehensive assessment of disease burden for 107 diseases and injuries and 10 selected risk factors for the world and 8 major regions. Since then, WHO has regularly published updates of the GBD in its World Health Reports. These updates draw on WHO’s extensive databases on levels of child and adult mortality and on causes of death in Member States that have useable death registration data, together with data from surveillance systems and epidemiological studies. They provide internally consistent estimates for a total of 135 diseases and injuries, for 8 age groups and 14 subregions of the 6 WHO regions. The most recent update5 goes further and takes into account the latest projections by UNAIDS and WHO for HIV prevalence and mortality, as well as updated World Bank forecasts for economic growth. The resulting estimates suggest a massive shift in the distribution of deaths over the coming 25 years.

Noncommunicable conditions will cause over three quarters of all deaths in 2030

As populations age in middle- and low-income countries over the next 25 years, the proportion of deaths due to noncommunicable diseases will rise significantly. Globally, deaths from cancer will increase from 7.4 million in 2004 to 11.8 million in 2030, and deaths from cardiovascular diseases will rise from 17.1 million to 23.4 million in the same period. Deaths due to road traffic accidents will increase from 1.3 million in 2004 to 2.4 million in 2030, primarily owing to increased motor vehicle ownership and use associated with economic growth in low- and middle-income countries. By 2030, deaths due to cancer, cardiovascular diseases and traffic accidents will collectively account for 56% of the projected 67 million deaths due to all causes.

This increase in deaths from noncommunicable diseases will be accompanied by large declines in mortality for the main communicable, maternal, perinatal and nutritional causes, including HIV infection, tuberculosis and malaria. However, deaths worldwide from HIV/AIDS are expected to rise from 2.2 million in 2008 to a maximum of 2.4 million in 2012 before declining to1.2 million in 2030.

The top 20 causes of death in 2030

It is predicted that the four leading causes of death in the world in 2030 will be ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease (stroke), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and lower respiratory infections (mainly pneumonia). Much of the increase in COPD is associated with projected increases in tobacco use. On the other hand, road traffic accidents will emerge as the fifth leading cause of death in 2030, rising from its position as the ninth leading cause in 2004.

Although deaths due to HIV/AIDS are projected to fall by 2030, it will remain the tenth leading cause of death worldwide. Deaths due to other communicable diseases are projected to decline at a faster rate: tuberculosis will fall to No. 20 and diarrhoeal diseases to No. 23 in the list of leading causes.

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